earthquake preparedness research paper

National Earthquake Resilience: Research, Implementation, and Outreach (2011)

Chapter: 1 introduction.

1 Introduction

When a strong earthquake hits an urban area, structures collapse, people are injured or killed, infrastructure is disrupted, and business interruption begins. The immediate impacts caused by an earthquake can be devastating to a community, challenging it to launch rescue efforts, restore essential services, and initiate the process of recovery. The ability of a community to recover from such a disaster reflects its resilience, and it is the many factors that contribute to earthquake resilience that are the focus of this report. Specifically, we provide a roadmap for building community resilience within the context of the Strategic Plan of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP), a program first authorized by Congress in 1977 to coordinate the efforts of four federal agencies—National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), National Science Foundation (NSF), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

The three most recent earthquake disasters in the United States all occurred in California—in 1994 near Los Angeles at Northridge, in 1989 near San Francisco centered on Loma Prieta, and in 1971 near Los Angeles at San Fernando. In each earthquake, large buildings and major highways were heavily damaged or collapsed and the economic activity in the afflicted area was severely disrupted. Remarkably, despite the severity of damage, deaths numbered fewer than a hundred for each event. Moreover, in a matter of days or weeks, these communities had restored many essential services or worked around major problems, completed rescue efforts, and economic activity—although impaired—had begun to recover. It could be argued that these communities were, in fact, quite resilient. But

it should be emphasized that each of these earthquakes was only moderate to strong in size, less than magnitude-7, and that the impacted areas were limited in size. How well would these communities cope with a magnitude-8 earthquake? What lessons can be drawn from the resilience demonstrated for a moderate earthquake in preparing for a great one?

Perhaps experience in dealing with hurricane disasters would be instructive in this regard. In a typical year, a few destructive hurricanes make landfall in the United States. Most of them cause moderate structural damage, some flooding, limited disruption of services—usually loss of power—and within a few days, activity returns to near normal. However, when Hurricane Katrina struck the New Orleans region in 2005 and caused massive flooding and long-term evacuation of much of the population, the response capabilities were stretched beyond their limits. Few observers would argue that New Orleans, at least in the short term, was a resilient community in the face of that event.

Would an earthquake on the scale of the 1906 event in northern California or the 1857 event in southern California lead to a similar catastrophe? It is likely that an earthquake on the scale of these events in California would indeed lead to a catastrophe similar to hurricane Katrina, but of a significantly different nature. Flooding, of course, would not be the main hazard, but substantial casualties, collapse of structures, fires, and economic disruption could be of great consequence. Similarly, what would happen if there were to be a repeat of the New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, in view of the vulnerability of the many bridges and chemical facilities in the region and the substantial barge traffic on the Mississippi River? Or, consider the impact if an earthquake like the 1886 Charleston tremor struck in other areas in the central or eastern United States, where earthquake-prone, unreinforced masonry structures abound and earthquake preparedness is not a prime concern? The resilience of communities and regions, and the steps—or roadmap—that could be taken to ensure that areas at risk become earthquake resilient, are the subject of this report.

EARTHQUAKE RISK AND HAZARD

Earthquakes proceed as cascades, in which the primary effects of faulting and ground shaking induce secondary effects such as landslides, liquefaction, and tsunami, which in turn set off destructive processes within the built environment such as fires and dam failures (NRC, 2003). The socioeconomic effects of large earthquakes can reverberate for decades.

The seismic hazard for a specified site is a probabilistic forecast of how intense the earthquake effects will be at that site. In contrast, seismic risk is a probabilistic forecast of the damage to society that will be caused by earthquakes, usually measured in terms of casualties and economic losses in a

specified area integrated over the post-earthquake period. Risk depends on the hazard, but it is compounded by a community’s exposure —its population and the extent and density of its built environment—as well as the fragility of its built environment, population, and socioeconomic systems to seismic hazards. Exposure and fragility contribute to vulnerability . Risk is lowered by resiliency , the measure of how efficiently and how quickly a community can recover from earthquake damage.

Risk analysis seeks to quantify the risk equation in a framework that allows the impact of political policies and economic investments to be evaluated, to inform the decision-making processes that contribute to risk reduction. Risk quantification is a difficult problem, because it requires detailed knowledge of the natural and the built environments, as well as an understanding of both earthquake and human behaviors. Moreover, national risk is a dynamic concept because of the exponential rise in the urban exposure to seismic hazards (EERI, 2003b)—calculating risk involves predictions of highly uncertain demographic trends.

Estimating Losses from Earthquakes

The synoptic earthquake risk studies needed for policy formulation are the responsibility of NEHRP. These studies can take the form of deterministic or scenario studies where the effects of a single earthquake are modeled, or probabilistic studies that weight the effects from a number of different earthquake scenarios by the annual likelihood of their occurrence. The consequences are measured in terms of dollars of damage, fatalities, injuries, tons of debris generated, ecological damage, etc. The exposure period may be defined as the design lifetime of a building or some other period of interest (e.g., 50 years). Typically, seismic risk estimates are presented in terms of an exceedance probability (EP) curve (Kunreuther et al., 2004), which shows the probability that specific parameters will equal or exceed specified values ( Figure 1.1 ). On this figure, a loss estimate calculated for a specific scenario earthquake is represented by a horizontal slice through the EP curve, while estimates of annualized losses from earthquakes are portrayed by the area under the EP curve.

The 2008 Great California ShakeOut exercise in southern California is an example of a scenario study that describes what would happen during and after a magnitude-7.8 earthquake on the southernmost 300 km of the San Andreas Fault ( Figure 1.2 ), a plausible event on the fault that is most likely to produce a major earthquake. Analysis of the 2008 ShakeOut scenario, which involved more than 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of more than 5.5 million citizens, indicated that the scenario earthquake would have resulted in an estimated 1,800 fatalities, $113 billion in damages to buildings and lifelines, and nearly $70 billion in busi-

FIGURE 1.1 Sample mean EP curve, showing that for a specified event the probability of insured losses exceeding L i is given by p i . SOURCE: Kunreuther et al. (2004).

ness interruption (Jones et al., 2008; Rose et al., in press). The broad areal extent and long duration of water service outages was the main contributor to business interruption losses. Moreover, the scenario is essentially a compound event like Hurricane Katrina, with the projected urban fires caused by gas main breaks and other types of induced accidents projected to cause $40 billion of the property damage and more than $22 billion of the business interruption. Devastating fires occurred in the wake of the 1906 San Francisco, 1923 Tokyo, and 1995 Kobe earthquakes.

Loss estimates have been published for a range of earthquake scenarios based on historic events—e.g., the 1906 San Francisco earthquake (Kircher et al., 2006); the 1811/1812 New Madrid earthquakes (Elnashai et al., 2009); and the magnitude-9 Cascadia subduction earthquake of 1700 (CREW, 2005)—or inferred from geologic data that show the magnitudes and locations of prehistoric fault ruptures (e.g., the Puente Hills blind thrust that runs beneath central Los Angeles; Field et al., 2005). In all cases, the results from such estimates are staggering, with economic losses that run into the hundreds of billions of dollars.

FEMA’s latest estimate of Annualized Earthquake Loss (AEL) for the nation (FEMA, 2008) is an example of a probabilistic study—an estimate of national earthquake risk that used HAZUS-MH software ( Box 1.1 ) together with input from Census 2000 data and the 2002 USGS National Seismic Hazard Map. The current AEL estimate of $5.3 billion (2005$)

FIGURE 1.2 A “ShakeMap” representing the shaking produced by the scenario earthquake on which the Great California ShakeOut was based. The colors represent the Modified Mercalli Intensity, with warmer colors representing areas of greater damage. SOURCE: USGS. Available at earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/sc/shake/ShakeOut2_full_se/ .

reflects building-related direct economic losses including damage to buildings and their contents, commercial inventories, as well as damaged building-related income losses (e.g., wage losses, relocation costs, rental income losses, etc.), but does not include indirect economic losses or losses to lifeline systems. For comparison, the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) (2003b) extrapolated the FEMA (2001) estimate of AEL ($4.4 billion) for residential and commercial building-related direct economic losses by a factor of 2.5 to include indirect economic losses, the social costs of death and injury, as well as direct and indirect losses to the

BOX 1.1 HAZUS ® —Risk Metrics for NEHRP

The ability to monitor and compare seismic risk across states and regions is critical to the management of NEHRP. At the state and local level, an understanding of seismic risk is important for planning and for evaluating costs and benefits associated with building codes, as well as a variety of other prevention measures. HAZUS is Geographic Information System (GIS) software for earthquake loss estimation that was developed by FEMA in cooperation with the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS). HAZUS-MH (Hazards U.S.-Multi-Hazard) was released in 2003 to include wind and flood hazards in addition to the earthquake hazards that were the subject of the 1997 and 1999 HAZUS releases. Successive HAZUS maintenance releases (MR) have been made available by FEMA since the initial HAZUS-MH MR-1 release; the latest version, HAZUS-MH MR-5, was released in December 2010.

Annualized Earthquake Loss (AEL) is the estimated long-term average of earthquake losses in any given year for a specific location. Studies by FEMA based on the 1990 and 2000 censuses provide two “snapshots” of seismic risk in the United States (FEMA, 2001, 2008). These studies, together with an earlier analysis of the 1970 census by Petak and Atkisson (1982), show that the estimated national AEL increased from $781 million (1970$) to $4.7 billion (2000$)—or by about 40 percent—over four decades ( Figure 1.3 ). All three studies used building-related direct economic losses and included structural and nonstructural replacement costs, contents damage, business inventory losses, and direct business interruption losses.

industrial, manufacturing, transportation, and utility sectors to arrive at an annual average financial loss in excess of $10 billion.

Although the need to address earthquake risk is now accepted in many communities, the ability to identify and act on specific hazard and risk issues can be improved by reducing the uncertainties in the risk equation. Large ranges in loss estimates generally stem from two types of uncertainty—the natural variability assigned to earthquake processes ( aleatory uncertainty ), as well as a lack of knowledge of the true hazards and risks involved ( epistemic uncertainty ). Uncertainties are associated with the methodologies, the assumptions, and databases used to estimate the ground motions and building inventories, the modeling of building responses, and the correlation of expected economic and social losses to the estimated physical damages.

FIGURE 1.3 Growth of seismic risk in the United States. Annualized Earthquake Loss (AEL) estimates are shown for the census year on which the estimate is based, in census year dollars. Estimate for 1970 census from Petak and Atkinson (1982); HAZUS-99 estimate for 1990 census from FEMA (2001); and HAZUS-MH estimate for 2000 census from FEMA (2008). Consumer Price Index (CPI) dollar adjustments based on CPI inflation calculator (see data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl ).

Comparison of published risk estimates reveals the sensitivity of such estimates to varying inputs, such as soil types and ground motion attenuation models, or building stock inventories and damage calculations. The basic earth science and geotechnical research and data that the NEHRP agencies provide to communities help to reduce these types of epistemic uncertainty, whereas an understanding of the intrinsic aleatory uncertainty is achieved through scientific research into the processes that cause earthquakes. Accurate loss estimation models increase public confidence in making seismic risk management decisions. Until the uncertainties surrounding the EP curve in Figure 1.1 are reduced, there will be either unnecessary or insufficient emergency response planning and mitigation because the experts in these areas will be unable to inform decision-makers of the probabilities and potential outcomes with an appropriate degree of

confidence (NRC, 2006a). Information about new and rehabilitated buildings and infrastructure, coupled with improved seismic hazard maps, can allow policy-makers to track incremental reductions in risk and improvements in safety through earthquake mitigation programs (NRC, 2006b).

NEHRP ACCOMPLISHMENTS—THE PAST 30 YEARS

In its 30 years of existence, NEHRP has provided a focused, coordinated effort toward developing a knowledge base for addressing the earthquake threat. The following summary of specific accomplishments from the earth sciences and engineering fields are based on the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan (NIST, 2008):

• Improved understanding of earthquake processes. Basic research and earthquake monitoring have significantly advanced the understanding of the geologic processes that cause earthquakes, the characteristics of earthquake faults, the nature of seismicity, and the propagation of seismic waves. This understanding has been incorporated into seismic hazard assessments, earthquake potential assessments, building codes and design criteria, rapid assessments of earthquake impacts, and scenarios for risk mitigation and response planning.

• Improved earthquake hazard assessment. Improvements in the National Seismic Hazard Maps have been developed through a scientifically defensible and repeatable process that involves peer input and review at regional and national levels by expert and user communities. Once based on six broad zones, they now are based on a grid of seismic hazard assessments at some 150,000 sites throughout the country. The new maps, first developed in 1996, are periodically updated and form the basis for the Design Ground Motion Maps used in the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures, the foundation for the seismic elements of model building codes.

• Improved earthquake risk assessment. Development of earthquake hazard- and risk-assessment techniques for use throughout the United States has improved awareness of earthquake impacts on communities. NEHRP funds have supported the development and continued refinement of HAZUS-MH. The successful NEHRP-supported integration of earthquake risk-assessment and loss-estimation methodologies with earthquake hazard assessments and notifications has provided significant benefits for both emergency response and community planning. Moreover, major advances in risk assessment and hazard loss estimation beyond what could be included in a software package for general users were developed by the three NSF-supported earthquake engineering centers.

• Improved earthquake safety in design and construction. Earthquake safety in new buildings has been greatly improved through the adoption, in whole or in part, of earthquake-resistant national model building codes by state and local governments in all 50 states. Development of advanced earthquake engineering technologies for use in design and construction has greatly improved the cost-effectiveness of earthquake-resistant design and construction while giving options with predicted decision consequences. These techniques include new methods for reducing the seismic risk associated with nonstructural components, base isolation methods for dissipating seismic energy in buildings, and performance-based design approaches.

• Improved earthquake safety for existing buildings. NEHRP-led research, development of engineering guidelines, and implementation activities associated with existing buildings have led to the first generation of consensus-based national standards for evaluating and rehabilitating existing buildings. This work provided the basis for two American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) standards documents: ASCE 31 (Seismic Evaluation of Existing Buildings) and ASCE 41 (Seismic Rehabilitation of Existing Buildings).

• Development of partnerships for public awareness and earthquake mitigation. NEHRP has developed and sustained partnerships with state and local governments, professional groups, and multi-state earthquake consortia to improve public awareness of the earthquake threat and support the development of sound earthquake mitigation policies.

• Improved development and dissemination of earthquake information. There is now a greatly increased body of earthquake-related information available to public- and private-sector officials and the general public. This comes through effective documentation, earthquake response exercises, learning-from-earthquake activities, publications on earthquake safety, training, education, and information on general earthquake phenomena and means to reduce their impact. Millions of earthquake preparedness handbooks have been delivered to at-risk populations, and many of these handbooks have been translated from English into languages most easily understood by large sectors of the population. NEHRP now maintains a website 1 that provides information on the program and communicates regularly with the earthquake professional community through the monthly electronic newsletter, Seismic Waves.

• Improved notification of earthquakes. The USGS National Earthquake Information Center and regional networks, all elements of the Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS), now provide earthquake

_________________

1 See www.nehrp.gov .

alerts describing a magnitude and location within a few minutes after an earthquake. The USGS PAGER system 2 provides estimates of the number of people and the names of cities exposed to shaking, with corresponding levels of impact shown by the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale and estimates of the number of fatalities and economic loss, following significant earthquakes worldwide ( Figure 1.4 ). When coupled with graphic ShakeMaps 3 showing the distribution and severity of ground shaking (e.g., Chapter 3 , Figure 3.2 ), this information is essential for effective emergency response, infrastructure management, and recovery planning.

• Expanded training and education of earthquake professionals. Thousands of graduates of U.S. colleges and universities have benefited from their involvement and experiences with NEHRP-supported research projects and training activities. Those graduates now form the nucleus of America’s earthquake professional community.

• Development of advanced data collection and research facilities. NEHRP took the lead in developing ANSS and the George E. Brown, Jr. Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES). Through these initiatives, NEES now forms a national infrastructure for testing geotechnical, structural, and nonstructural systems, and once completed, ANSS will provide a comprehensive, nationwide system for monitoring seismicity and collecting data on earthquake shaking on the ground and in structures. NEHRP also has participated in the development of the Global Seismographic Network to provide data on seismic events worldwide.

As well as this list of important accomplishments cited in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan, the following range of NEHRP accomplishments in the social science arena were described in NRC (2006a):

• Development of a comparative research framework. Largely supported by NEHRP, over the past three decades social scientists increasingly have placed the study of earthquakes within a comparative framework that includes other natural, technological, and willful events. This evolving framework calls for the integration of hazards and disaster research within the social sciences and among social science, natural science, and engineering disciplines.

• Documentation of community and regional vulnerability to earthquakes and other natural hazards. Under NEHRP sponsorship, social science knowledge has expanded greatly in terms of data on community and regional exposure and vulnerability to earthquakes and other natural hazards, such that the foundation has been established for devel-

2 See earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/ .

3 See earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/ .

FIGURE 1.4 Sample PAGER output for the strong and damaging February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand. SOURCE: USGS. Available at earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/pager/events/us/b0001igm/index.html .

oping more precise loss estimation models and related decision support tools (e.g., HAZUS). The vulnerabilities are increasingly documented through state-of-the-art geospatial and temporal methods (e.g., GIS, remote sensing, and visual overlays of hazardous areas with demographic information), and the resulting data are equally relevant to pre-, trans-, and post-disaster social science investigations.

• Household and business-sector adoption of self-protective measures. A solid knowledge base has been developed under NEHRP at the household level on vulnerability assessment, risk communication, warning response (e.g., evacuation), and the adoption of other forms of protective action (e.g., emergency food and water supplies, fire extinguishers, procedures and tools to cut off utilities, hazard insurance). Adoption of these and other self-protective measures has been modeled systematically, highlighting the importance of disaster experience and perceptions of personal risk (i.e., beliefs about household vulnerability to and consequences of specific events) and, to a lesser extent, demographic variables (e.g., income, education, home ownership) and social influences (e.g., communications patterns and observations of what other people are doing). Although research on adoption of self-protective measures of businesses is much more limited, recent experience of disaster-related business or lifeline interruptions has been shown to be correlated with greater preparedness activities, at least in the short run. Such preparedness activities are more likely to occur in larger as opposed to smaller commercial enterprises.

• Public-sector adoption of disaster mitigation measures. Most NEHRP-sponsored social science research has focused on the politics of hazard mitigation as they relate to intergovernmental issues in land-use regulations. The highly politicized nature of these regulations has been well documented, particularly when multiple layers of government are involved. Governmental conflicts regarding responsibility for the land-use practices of households and businesses are compounded by the involvement of other stakeholders (e.g., bankers, developers, industry associations, professional associations, other community activists, and emergency management practitioners). The results are complex social networks of power relationships that constrain the adoption of hazard mitigation policies and practices at local and regional levels.

• Hazard insurance issues. NEHRP-sponsored social research has documented many difficulties in developing and maintaining an actuarially sound insurance program for earthquakes and floods—those who are most likely to purchase earthquake and flood insurance are, in fact, those who are most likely to file claims. This problem makes it virtually impossible to sustain an insurance market in the private sector for these hazards. Economists and psychologists have documented in laboratory studies

a number of logical deficiencies in the way people process information related to risks as it relates to insurance decision-making. Market failure in earthquake and flood insurance remains an important social science research and public policy issue.

• Public-sector adoption of disaster emergency and recovery preparedness measures. NEHRP-sponsored social science studies of emergency preparedness have addressed the extent of local support for disaster preparedness, management strategies for improving the effectiveness of community preparedness, the increasing use of computer and communications technologies in disaster planning and training, the structure of community preparedness networks, and the effects of disaster preparedness on both pre-determined (e.g., improved warning response and evacuation behavior) and improvised (e.g., effective ad hoc uses of personnel and resources) responses during actual events. Thus far there has been little social science research on the disaster recovery aspect of preparedness.

• Social impacts of disasters. A solid body of social science research supported by NEHRP has documented the destructive impacts of disasters on residential dwellings and the processes people go through in housing recovery (emergency shelter, temporary sheltering, temporary housing, and permanent housing), as well as analogous impacts on businesses. Documented specifically are the problems faced by low-income households, which tend to be headed disproportionately by females and racial or ethnic minorities. Notably, there has been little social science research under NEHRP on the impacts of disasters on other aspects of the built environment. There is a substantial research literature on the psychological, social, and economic and (to a lesser extent) political impacts of disaster, which suggests that these impacts, while not random within impacted populations, are generally modest and transitory.

• Post-disaster responses by the public and private sectors. Research before and since the establishment of NEHRP in 1977 has contradicted misconceptions that during disasters, panic will be widespread, that large percentages of those who are expected to respond will simply abandon disaster relief roles, that local institutions will break down, that crime and other forms of anti-social behavior will be rampant, and that the mental impairment of victims and first responders will be a major problem. Existing and ongoing research is documenting and modeling the mix of expected and improvised responses by emergency management personnel, the public and private organizations of which they are members, and the multi-organizational networks within which these individual and organizational responses are nested. As a result of this research, a range of decision support tools is now being developed for emergency management practitioners.

• Post-disaster reconstruction and recovery by the public and private sectors. Prior to NEHRP relatively little was known about disas-

ter recovery processes and outcomes at different levels of analysis (e.g., households, neighborhoods, firms, communities, and regions). NEHRP-funded projects have helped to refine general conceptions of disaster recovery, made important contributions in understanding the recovery of households and communities (primarily) and businesses (more recently), and contributed to the development of statistically based community and regional models of post-disaster losses and recovery processes.

• Research on resilience has been a major theme of the NSF-supported earthquake research centers. The Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) sponsored research providing operational definitions of resilience, measuring its cost and effectiveness, and designing policies to implement it at the level of the individual household, business, government, and nongovernment institution. The Mid-American Earthquake Center (MAE) sponsored research on the promotion of earthquake-resilient regions.

ROADMAP CONTEXT—THE EERI REPORT AND NEHRP STRATEGIC PLAN

The 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan calls for an accelerated effort to develop community resilience. The plan defines a vision of “a nation that is earthquake resilient in public safety, economic strength, and national security,” and articulates the NEHRP mission “to develop, disseminate, and promote knowledge, tools, and practices for earthquake risk reduction—through coordinated, multidisciplinary, interagency partnerships among NEHRP agencies and their stakeholders—that improve the Nation’s earthquake resilience in public safety, economic, strength, and national security.” The plan identifies three goals with fourteen objectives (listed below), plus nine strategic priorities (presented in Appendix A ).

Goal A: Improve understanding of earthquake processes and impacts.

Objective 1: Advance understanding of earthquake phenomena and generation processes.

Objective 2: Advance understanding of earthquake effects on the built environment.

Objective 3: Advance understanding of the social, behavioral, and economic factors linked to implementing risk reduction and mitigation strategies in the public and private sectors.

Objective 4: Improve post-earthquake information acquisition and management.

Goal B: Develop cost-effective measures to reduce earthquake impacts on individuals, the built environment, and society-at-large.

Objective 5: Assess earthquake hazards for research and practical application.

Objective 6: Develop advanced loss estimation and risk assessment tools.

Objective 7: Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of buildings and other structures.

Objective 8: Develop tools that improve the seismic performance of critical infrastructure.

Goal C: Improve the earthquake resilience of communities nationwide.

Objective 9: Improve the accuracy, timeliness, and content of earthquake information products.

Objective 10: Develop comprehensive earthquake risk scenarios and risk assessments.

Objective 11: Support development of seismic standards and building codes and advocate their adoption and enforcement.

Objective 12: Promote the implementation of earthquake-resilient measures in professional practice and in private and public policies.

Objective 13: Increase public awareness of earthquake hazards and risks.

Objective 14: Develop the nation’s human resource base in earthquake safety fields.

Although the Strategic Plan does not specify the activities that would be required to reach its goals, in the initial briefing to the committee NIST, the NEHRP lead agency, described the 2003 report by the EERI, Securing Society Against Catastrophic Earthquake Losses, as at least a starting point. The EERI report lists specific activities—and estimates costs—for a range of research programs (presented in Appendix B ) that are in broad accord with the goals laid out in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. The committee was asked to review, update, and validate the programs and cost estimates laid out in the EERI report.

COMMITTEE CHARGE AND SCOPE OF THIS STUDY

The National Institute of Standards and Technology—the lead NEHRP agency—commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to undertake a study to assess the activities, and their costs, that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years ( Box 1.2 ). The charge

BOX 1.2 Statement of Task

A National Research Council committee will develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States. The committee will frame the road map around the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience in public safety and economic security stated in the current strategic plan of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction Program (NEHRP) submitted to Congress in 2008. This roadmap will be based on an analysis of what will be required to realize the strategic plan’s major technical goals for earthquake resilience within 20 years. In particular, the committee will:

• Host a national workshop focused on assessing the basic and applied research, seismic monitoring, knowledge transfer, implementation, education, and outreach activities needed to achieve national earthquake resilience over a twenty-year period.

• Estimate program costs, on an annual basis, that will be required to implement the roadmap.

• Describe the future sustained activities, such as earthquake monitoring (both for research and for warning), education, and public outreach, which should continue following the 20-year period.

to the committee recognized that there would be a requirement for some sustained activities under the NEHRP program after this 20-year period.

To address the charge, the NRC assembled a committee of 12 experts with disciplinary expertise spanning earthquake and structural engineering; seismology, engineering geology, and earth system science; disaster and emergency management; and the social and economic components of resilience and disaster recovery. Committee biographic information is presented in Appendix C .

The committee held four meetings between May and December, 2009, convening twice in Washington, DC; and also in Irvine, CA; and Chicago, IL (see Appendix D ). The major focal point for community input to the committee was a 2-day open workshop held in August 2009, where concurrent breakout sessions interspersed with plenary addresses enabled the committee to gain a thorough understanding of community perspectives regarding program needs and priorities. Additional briefings by NEHRP agency representatives were presented during open sessions at the initial and final committee meetings.

Report Structure

Building on the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan and the EERI report, this report analyses the critical issues affecting resilience, identifies challenges and opportunities in achieving that goal, and recommends specific actions that would comprise a roadmap to community resilience. Because the concept of “resilience” is a fundamental tenet of the roadmap for realizing the major technical goals of the NEHRP Strategic Plan, Chapter 2 presents an analysis of the concept of resilience, a description of the characteristics of a resilient community, resilience metrics, and a description of the benefits to the nation of a resilience-based approach to hazard mitigation. Chapter 3 contains descriptions of the 18 broad, integrated tasks comprising the elements of a roadmap to achieve national earthquake resilience focusing on the specific outcomes that could be achieved in a 20-year timeframe, and the elements realizable within 5 years. These tasks are described in terms of the proposed activity and actions, existing knowledge and current capabilities, enabling requirements, and implementation issues. Costs to implement these 18 tasks are presented in Chapter 4 , in as much detail as possible within the constraint that some components have been the subject of specific, detailed costing exercises whereas others are necessarily broad-brush estimates at this stage. The final chapter briefly summarizes the major elements of the roadmap.

This page intentionally left blank.

The United States will certainly be subject to damaging earthquakes in the future. Some of these earthquakes will occur in highly populated and vulnerable areas. Coping with moderate earthquakes is not a reliable indicator of preparedness for a major earthquake in a populated area. The recent, disastrous, magnitude-9 earthquake that struck northern Japan demonstrates the threat that earthquakes pose. Moreover, the cascading nature of impacts-the earthquake causing a tsunami, cutting electrical power supplies, and stopping the pumps needed to cool nuclear reactors-demonstrates the potential complexity of an earthquake disaster. Such compound disasters can strike any earthquake-prone populated area. National Earthquake Resilience presents a roadmap for increasing our national resilience to earthquakes.

The National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program (NEHRP) is the multi-agency program mandated by Congress to undertake activities to reduce the effects of future earthquakes in the United States. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)-the lead NEHRP agency-commissioned the National Research Council (NRC) to develop a roadmap for earthquake hazard and risk reduction in the United States that would be based on the goals and objectives for achieving national earthquake resilience described in the 2008 NEHRP Strategic Plan. National Earthquake Resilience does this by assessing the activities and costs that would be required for the nation to achieve earthquake resilience in 20 years.

National Earthquake Resilience interprets resilience broadly to incorporate engineering/science (physical), social/economic (behavioral), and institutional (governing) dimensions. Resilience encompasses both pre-disaster preparedness activities and post-disaster response. In combination, these will enhance the robustness of communities in all earthquake-vulnerable regions of our nation so that they can function adequately following damaging earthquakes. While National Earthquake Resilience is written primarily for the NEHRP, it also speaks to a broader audience of policy makers, earth scientists, and emergency managers.

READ FREE ONLINE

Welcome to OpenBook!

You're looking at OpenBook, NAP.edu's online reading room since 1999. Based on feedback from you, our users, we've made some improvements that make it easier than ever to read thousands of publications on our website.

Do you want to take a quick tour of the OpenBook's features?

Show this book's table of contents , where you can jump to any chapter by name.

...or use these buttons to go back to the previous chapter or skip to the next one.

Jump up to the previous page or down to the next one. Also, you can type in a page number and press Enter to go directly to that page in the book.

Switch between the Original Pages , where you can read the report as it appeared in print, and Text Pages for the web version, where you can highlight and search the text.

To search the entire text of this book, type in your search term here and press Enter .

Share a link to this book page on your preferred social network or via email.

View our suggested citation for this chapter.

Ready to take your reading offline? Click here to buy this book in print or download it as a free PDF, if available.

Get Email Updates

Do you enjoy reading reports from the Academies online for free ? Sign up for email notifications and we'll let you know about new publications in your areas of interest when they're released.

Information

• Author Services

Initiatives

You are accessing a machine-readable page. In order to be human-readable, please install an RSS reader.

All articles published by MDPI are made immediately available worldwide under an open access license. No special permission is required to reuse all or part of the article published by MDPI, including figures and tables. For articles published under an open access Creative Common CC BY license, any part of the article may be reused without permission provided that the original article is clearly cited. For more information, please refer to https://www.mdpi.com/openaccess .

Feature papers represent the most advanced research with significant potential for high impact in the field. A Feature Paper should be a substantial original Article that involves several techniques or approaches, provides an outlook for future research directions and describes possible research applications.

Feature papers are submitted upon individual invitation or recommendation by the scientific editors and must receive positive feedback from the reviewers.

Editor’s Choice articles are based on recommendations by the scientific editors of MDPI journals from around the world. Editors select a small number of articles recently published in the journal that they believe will be particularly interesting to readers, or important in the respective research area. The aim is to provide a snapshot of some of the most exciting work published in the various research areas of the journal.

Original Submission Date Received: .

• Active Journals
• Find a Journal
• Proceedings Series
• For Authors
• For Reviewers
• For Editors
• For Librarians
• For Publishers
• For Societies
• For Conference Organizers
• Open Access Policy
• Institutional Open Access Program
• Special Issues Guidelines
• Editorial Process
• Research and Publication Ethics
• Article Processing Charges
• Testimonials
• Preprints.org
• SciProfiles
• Encyclopedia

Article Menu

• Subscribe SciFeed
• Recommended Articles
• Google Scholar
• on Google Scholar
• Table of Contents

Find support for a specific problem in the support section of our website.

Please let us know what you think of our products and services.

Visit our dedicated information section to learn more about MDPI.

JSmol Viewer

“the big one” earthquake preparedness assessment among younger filipinos using a random forest classifier and an artificial neural network.

1. Introduction

• Will the random forest classifier surpass the accuracy rate of the basic decision tree as claimed by related studies in line with earthquake preparedness?
• Will the results of the different MLAs be similar for factors affecting earthquake preparedness?
• Can nonlinear relationship frameworks be effectively assessed by MLAs?
• Are the results different from SEMs and MLAs?
• How can the results be practically applied by the Philippines for disaster preparedness?

2. Theoretical Framework

3. methodology, 3.1. data collection, 3.2. data cleaning and aggregation, 3.3. prediction using machine learning algorithms, 3.3.1. decision tree, 3.3.2. random forest classifier, 3.3.3. artificial neural network, 3.3.4. swish activation function (swaf), 3.3.5. softmax activation function (saf), 3.3.6. rmsprop optimizer, 4.1. decision tree, 4.2. random forest classifier, 4.3. artificial neural network, 5. discussion, 5.1. practical implications, 5.2. contribution and application, 5.3. limitations and recommendations, 6. conclusions, author contributions, institutional review board statement, informed consent statement, data availability statement, acknowledgments, conflicts of interest.

• Morales, N.J. Magnitude 6.7 Quake Hits South of the Philippine Capital. Available online: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/magnitude-67-quake-hits-south-philippine-capital-2021-07-23/ (accessed on 30 December 2021).
• Badillo, V. The Moro Gulf tidal wave of 17 August 1976. Philipp. Stud. 1978 , 26 , 426–436. [ Google Scholar ]
• World, B. Natural Disaster Risk Management in the Philippines Reducing Vulnerability ; Pacific Consultants International: Tama, Japan, 2005. [ Google Scholar ]
• Philippine Institute of Volcanology. 1990 July 16 Ms7.8 Luzon Earthquake ; Philippine Institute of Volcanology: Manila, The Philippines, 2018.
• Yariyan, P.; Zabihi, H.; Wolf, I.D.; Karami, M.; Amiriyan, S. Earthquake risk assessment using an integrated Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process with Artificial Neural Networks based on GIS: A case study of Sanandaj in Iran. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101705. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• National Centers for Environmental. Philippines Earthquakes ; National Centers for Environmental: Manila, The Philippines, 2021.
• Smoczyk, G.M.; Hayes, G.P.; Hamburger, M.W.; Benz, H.M.; Villaseñor, A.; Furlong, K.P. Seismicity of the Earth 1900–2012 Philippine Sea Plate and Vicinity: US. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2010–1083-M 2013, 1 Sheet, Scale 1 10,000,000 ; USGS: Washington, DC, USA, 2013.
• Carteciano, J.A. The Big One Part 2 ; National Research Council of the Philippines: Manila, The Philippines, 2017.
• Carteciano, J.A. The Big One: Facts and Impacts ; National Research Council of the Philippines: Manila, The Philippines, 2017.
• Williams, L.; Arguillas, F.; Arguillas, M. Major storms, rising tides, and wet feet: Adapting to flood risk in the Philippines. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101810. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Ong, A.K.S.; Prasetyo, Y.T.; Lagura, F.C.; Ramos, R.N.; Sigua, K.M.; Villas, J.A.; Young, M.N.; Diaz, J.F.T.; Persada, S.F.; Redi, A.A.N.P. Factors affecting intention to prepare for mitigation of “the big one” earthquake in the Philippines: Integrating protection motivation theory and extended theory of planned behavior. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2021 , 63 , 102467. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Prasetyo, Y.T.; Castillo, A.M.; Salonga, L.J.; Sia, J.A.; Seneta, J.A. Factors affecting perceived effectiveness of COVID-19 prevention measures among Filipinos during Enhanced Community Quarantine in Luzon, Philippines: Integrating Protection Motivation Theory and extended Theory of Planned Behavior. Int. J. Infect. Dis. 2020 , 99 , 312–323. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Kurata, Y.B.; Prasetyo, Y.T.; Ong, A.K.; Nadlifatin, R.; Persada, S.F.; Chuenyindee, T.; Cahigas, M.M. Determining factors affecting preparedness beliefs among Filipinos on Taal Volcano eruption in Luzon, Philippines. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2022 , 76 , 103035. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Fan, Y.; Chen, J.; Shirkey, G.; John, R.; Wu, S.R.; Park, H.; Shao, C. Applications of structural equation modeling (SEM) in Ecological Studies: An updated review. Ecol. Process. 2016 , 5 , 19. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Woody, E. An SEM perspective on evaluating mediation: What every clinical researcher needs to know. J. Exp. Psychopathol. 2011 , 2 , 210–251. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• German, J.D.; Redi, A.A.; Ong, A.K.; Prasetyo, Y.T.; Sumera, V.L. Predicting factors affecting preparedness of volcanic eruption for a sustainable community: A case study in the Philippines. Sustainability 2022 , 14 , 11329. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Gaillard, J. Alternative paradigms of volcanic risk perception: The case of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2008 , 172 , 315–328. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Bolletino, V.; Stevens, A.; Sharma, M.; Dy, P.; Pham, P.; Vinck, P. Public perception of climate change and disaster preparedness: Evidence from the Philippines. Clim. Risk Manag. 2020 , 30 , 250. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Venable, C.; Javernick-Will, A.; Liel, A.; Koschmann, M. Revealing (mis)alignments between household perceptions and engineering assessments of post-disaster housingsafety in typhoons. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2021 , 53 , 101976. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Yang, W.; Zhou, S. Using decision tree analysis to identify the determinants of residents’ CO2 emissions from different types of trips: A case study of guangzhou, China. J. Clean. Prod. 2020 , 277 , 124071. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Milani, L.; Grumi, S.; Camisasca, E.; Miragoli, S.; Traficante, D.; Di Blasio, P. Familial risk and protective factors affecting CPS professionals’ child removal decision: A decision tree analysis study. Child. Youth Serv. Rev. 2020 , 109 , 104687. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Kim, Y.; Hardisty, R.; Torres, E.; Marfurt, K.J. Seismic facies classification using random forest algorithm. SEG Tech. Program Expand. Abstr. 2018 , 2161–2165. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Snehil; Goel, R. Flood Damage Analysis Using Machine Learning Techniques. Procedia Comput. Sci. 2020 , 173 , 78–85. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Chen, J.; Li, Q.; Wang, H.; Deng, M. A Machine Learning Ensemble Approach Based on Random Forest and Radial Basis Function Neural Network for Risk Evaluation of Regional Flood Disaster: A Case Study of the Yangtze River Delta, China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019 , 17 , 49. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Zagajewski, B.; Kluczek, M.; Raczko, E.; Njegovec, A.; Dabija, A.; Kycko, M. Comparison of random forest, support vector machines, and neural networks for post-disaster forest species mapping of the Krkonoše/Karkonosze Transboundary Biosphere Reserve. Remote Sens. 2021 , 13 , 2581. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Benemaran, R.S.; Esmaeili-Falak, M.; Javadi, A. Predicting resilient modulus of flexible pavement foundation using extreme gradient boosting based optimised models. Int. J. Pavement Eng. 2022 , 1–20. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Moustra, M.; Avraamides, M.; Christodoulo, C. Artificial neural networks for earthquake prediction using time series magnitude data or Seismic Electric Signal. Expert Syst. Appl. 2011 , 38 , 15032–15039. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Kimes, D.S.; Nelson, R.F.; Manry, M.T.; Fung, A.K. Review article: Attributes of neural networks for extracting continuous vegetation variables from optical and radar measurements. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2010 , 19 , 2639–2663. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Oktarina, R.; Bahagia, S.N.; Diawati, L.; Pribadi, K.S. Artificial neural network for predicting earthquake casualties and damages in Indonesia. IOP Sci. Earth Environ. Sci. 2020 , 426 , 012156. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Heidenrich, A.; Masson, T.; Bamberg, S. Let’s talk about flood risk—Evaluating a series of workshops on private flood protection. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101880. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Prasetyo, Y.T.; Senoro, D.B.; German, J.D.; Robielos, R.A.; Ney, F.P. Confirmatory factor analysis of vulnerability to natural hazards: A household Vulnerability Assessment in Marinduque Island, Philippines. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101831. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Vinnell, L.J.; Wallis, A.; Becker, J.S.; Johnston, D.M. Evaluating the ShakeOut drill in Aotearoa/New Zealand: Effects on knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 48 , 101721. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Becker, J.S.; Paton, D.; Johnston, D.M.; Ronan, K.R.; McClure, J. The role of prior experience in informing and motivating earthquake preparedness. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2017 , 22 , 179–193. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Budhathoki, N.K.; Paton, D.; Lassa, J.A.; Zander, K.K. Assessing farmers’ preparedness to cope with the impacts of multiple climate change-related hazards in the Terai lowlands of Nepal. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 49 , 101656. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Ataei, P.; Gholamrezai, S.; Movahedi, R.; Aliabadi, V. An analysis of farmers’ intention to use green pesticides: The application of the extended theory of planned behavior and health belief model. J. Rural Stud. 2021 , 81 , 378–384. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Song, Z.; Shi, X. Cherry growers’ perceived adaption efficacy to climate change and meteorological hazards in Northwest China. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 46 , 101620. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Aboelmaged, M. E-waste recycling behaviour: An integration of recycling habits into the theory of planned behaviour. J. Clean. Prod. 2021 , 278 , 124182. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• LaMorte, W. The Theory of Planned Behavior ; Boston University School of Public Health: Boston, PA, USA, 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Memon, M.A.; Ting, H.; Ramayah, T.; Chuah, F.; Cheah, J. A review of the methodological misconceptions and guidelines related to the application of structural equation modeling: A Malaysian scenario. J. Appl. Struct. Equ. Model. 2017 , 1 , 1–13. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ PubMed ]
• Hair, J.F. Multivariate Data Analysis: A Global Perspective ; Pearson: London, UK, 2010. [ Google Scholar ]
• Vogels, E. Millenials Stand Out for Their Technology Use, But Older Generations Also Embrace Digitals Life ; Pew Research Center: Washington, DC, USA, 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Mallouhy, R.; Jaoude, C.A.; Guyeux, C.; Makhoul, A. Major earthquake event prediction using various machine learning algorithm. In Proceedings of the 2019 International Conference on Information and Communication Technologies for Disaster Management (ICT-DM), Paris, France, 18–20 December 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Jahangir, M.H.; Reineh, S.M.M.; Abolghasemi, M. Spatial prediction of flood zonation mapping in Kan River Basin, Iran, using artificial neural network algorithm. Weather Clim. Extrem. 2019 , 25 , 100215. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Reese, K. Deep learning artificial neural networks for non-destructive archeological site dating. J. Archaeol. Sci. 2021 , 132 , 105413. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Sharma, S.; Sharma, S.; Athaiya, A. Activation Functions in Neural Network. Int. J. Eng. Appl. Sci. Technol. 2020 , 4 , 310–316. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Feng, J.; Lu, S. Performance Analysis of Various Activation Function in Artificial Neural Networks. IOP Conf. Ser. J. Phys. Conf. Ser. 2019 , 1237 , 022030. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Eckle, K.; Schmidt-Heiber, J. A comparison of deep networks with RELU activation function and linear spline-type methods. Neural Netw. 2019 , 110 , 232–242. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Pi, Y.; Nath, N.D.; Behzadan, A.H. Convultional neural networks for object detection in aerial imagery for disaster response and recovery. Adv. Eng. Inform. 2020 , 43 , 101009. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Anbarasan, M.; Muthu, B.; Sivaparthipan, C.B.; Sundarasekar, R.; Kadry, S.; Krishnamoorthy, S.; Samuel, D.J.; Dasel, A.A. Detection of flood disaster system based on IoT, big data, and convolutional neural network. Comput. Commun. 2010 , 150 , 150–157. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Satwik, P.M.; Sundram, M. An integrated approach for weather forecasting and disaster prediction using deep learning architecture based on memory Augmented Neural Network’s (MANN’s). Mater. Today Proc. 2021 . [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Jena, R.; Pradhan, B.; Beydoun, G.; Nizamuddin, A.; Sofyan, H.; Affan, H. Integrated model for earthquake risk assessment using neural network and analytical heirarchy process: Aceh provincce, Indonesia. Geosci. Front. 2020 , 11 , 613–634. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Jena, R.; Pradhan, B. Integrated ANN-cross-validation and AHP-TOPSIS model to improve earthquake risk assessment. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101723. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Yousefzadeh, M.; Hosseini, S.A.; Farnaghi, M. Spatiotemporally explicit earthquake prediction using deep neural network. Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 2021 , 144 , 106663. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Elfwing, S.; Uchibe, E.; Doya, K. Sigmoid-weighted linear units for neural network function approximation in reinforcement learning. Neural Netw. 2018 , 107 , 3–11. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ PubMed ]
• Pradhan, B.; Lee, S. Landslide susceptibility assessment and factor effect analysis: Backpropagation artificial neural networks and their comparison with frequency ratio and bivariate logistic regression modelling. Environ. Model. Softw. 2010 , 25 , 747–759. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Brownlee, J. Difference Between A Batch and An Epoch in A Neural Network ; Machine Learning Mastery: San Juan, PR, USA, 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Bushaev, V. Understanding RMSProp—Faster Neural Network Learning ; Towards Data Science: Toronto, ON, USA, 2018. [ Google Scholar ]
• Xu, D.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, H.; Mandic, D.P. Convergence of the RMSProp deep learning method with penalty for nonconvex optimization. Neural Netw. 2021 , 139 , 17–23. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Kolose, S.; Stewart, T.; Hume, P.; Tomkinson, G.R. Prediction of Military combat clothing size using Decision Trees and 3D body scan data. Appl. Ergon. 2021 , 95 , 103435. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Aznar, P. Decision Trees: Gini vs Entropy. Quantdare, 2 December 2020. Available online: https://quantdare.com/decision-trees-gini-vs-entropy/#:~:text=The%20Gini%20Index%20and%20the,both%20of%20them%20are%20represented (accessed on 13 December 2022).
• Lara, F.; Lara-Cueva, R.; Larco, J.C.; Carrera, E.V.; Leon, R. A deep learning approach for automation recognition of Seismo-volcanic events at the Cotopaxi volcano. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 2021 , 409 , 107142. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Kizrak, A. Comparison of Activation Functions for Deep Neural Network ; Towards Data Science: Toronto, ON, USA, 2019. [ Google Scholar ]
• Gao, F.; Li, B.; Chen, L.; Shang, Z.; Wei, X.; He, C. A softmax classifier for high-precision classification of ultrasonic similar signal. Ultrasonic 2021 , 112 , 106344. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Nhu, V.; Hoang, N.; Nguyen, H.; Ngo, P.T.T.; Buo, T.T.; Hao, P.V.; Samui, P.; Bui, D.T. Effective assessment of Keras based deep learning with different robust optimization algorithm for shallow landslide susceptibility mapping at tropical area. Catena 2020 , 188 , 104458. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Walczak, S.; Cerpa, N. Artificial Neural Network. In Encyclopedia of Physical Science and Technology ; Academic Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2003; pp. 631–645. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Lam, S. Predicting intention to save water: Theory ofplanned behavior, response efficacy, vulnerability, and perceived efficiency of alternative solutions. J. Appl. Soc. Psychol. 2006 , 36 , 2803–2824. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Garcia, T.A.; Fairlie, A.M.; Litt, D.M.; Waldron, K.A.; Lewis, M.A. Perceived vulnerability moderates the relations between the use of protective behavioral strategies and alcohol use and consequences among high-risk young adults. Addict. Behav. 2018 , 81 , 150–156. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ PubMed ]
• Zhao, Y.; Ni, Q.; Zhou, R. What factors influence the mobile health service adoption? A meta-analysis and the moderating role of age. Int. J. Inf. Manag. 2018 , 43 , 342–350. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Yau, S.; Wongsawat, P.; Songthap, A. Knowledge, Attitude and Perception of Risk and Preventive Behaviors toward Premarital Sexual Practice among In-School Adolescents. Eur. J. Investig. Health Psychol. Educ. 2020 , 10 , 497–510. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ Green Version ]
• Laato, S.; Islam, A.N.; Laine, T.H. Did location-based games motivate players to socialize during COVID-19? Telemat. Inform. 2020 , 54 , 101458. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ] [ PubMed ]
• Wu, D. Empirical study of knowledge withholding in cyberspace: Integrating protection motivation theory and theory of reasoned behavior. Comput. Hum. Behav. 2020 , 105 , 106229. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]
• Guo, C.; Sim, T.; Ho, H.C. Impact of information seeking, disaster preparedness and typhoon emergency response on perceived community resilience in Hong Kong. Int. J. Disaster Risk Reduct. 2020 , 50 , 101744. [ Google Scholar ] [ CrossRef ]

Click here to enlarge figure

Share and Cite

Ong, A.K.S.; Zulvia, F.E.; Prasetyo, Y.T. “The Big One” Earthquake Preparedness Assessment among Younger Filipinos Using a Random Forest Classifier and an Artificial Neural Network. Sustainability 2023 , 15 , 679. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010679

Ong AKS, Zulvia FE, Prasetyo YT. “The Big One” Earthquake Preparedness Assessment among Younger Filipinos Using a Random Forest Classifier and an Artificial Neural Network. Sustainability . 2023; 15(1):679. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010679

Ong, Ardvin Kester S., Ferani Eva Zulvia, and Yogi Tri Prasetyo. 2023. "“The Big One” Earthquake Preparedness Assessment among Younger Filipinos Using a Random Forest Classifier and an Artificial Neural Network" Sustainability 15, no. 1: 679. https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010679

Article Metrics

Article access statistics, further information, mdpi initiatives, follow mdpi.

Subscribe to receive issue release notifications and newsletters from MDPI journals

An official website of the United States government

The .gov means it’s official. Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

The site is secure. The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

• Publications
• Account settings

Preview improvements coming to the PMC website in October 2024. Learn More or Try it out now .

• Advanced Search
• Journal List
• BMC Public Health

Earthquake preparedness of households and its predictors based on health belief model

Masoumeh rostami-moez.

1 Research Center for Health Sciences, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

2 Vice-chancellor for Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

Mohammad Rabiee-Yeganeh

Mohammadreza shokouhi.

3 Chronic Diseases (Home Care) Research Center and School of Nursing & Midwifery, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

Amin Dosti-Irani

4 Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

Forouzan Rezapur-Shahkolai

5 Department of Public Health, School of Public Health, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Shahid Fahmideh Ave, Hamadan, Iran

6 Social Determinants of Health Research Center, Hamadan University of Medical Sciences, Hamadan, Iran

Associated Data

The analyzed datasets during this study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters in which many people are injured, disabled, or died. Iran has only 1 % of the world’s population, but the percentage of its earthquake-related deaths is absolutely higher. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the level of earthquake preparedness of households and its predictors using the Health Belief Model (HBM).

This observational descriptive and analytical study was conducted on 933 households in Hamadan province, located in the west of Iran, in 2019. Multi-stage cluster random sampling was used for selecting the participants. The inclusion criteria were being at least 18 years old and being able to answer the questions. A questionnaire was used for data collection including earthquake preparedness, awareness of earthquake response, predictors of earthquake preparedness based on the HBM, and demographic information. Analysis of variance, independent t-test, and a linear regression model was used.

The mean age of participants was 38.24 ± 12.85 years. The average score of earthquake preparedness was low (approximately 30%). There was a significant relationship between earthquake preparedness and gender ( P  < 0.001), homeownership ( P  < 0.001), marriage status ( P  < 0.001), education ( P  < 0.001), and previous earthquake experience ( P  < 0.001). Regarding the HBM constructs, perceived benefits ( P  < 0.001), cues to action ( P  < 0.001), and self-efficacy ( P  < 0.001) were significant predictors of earthquake preparedness.

Conclusions

Earthquake preparedness was insufficient. Besides, perceived benefits, cues to action, and self-efficacy were predictors of earthquake preparedness. These predictors can be taken into account, for designing and implementing related future interventions.

Earthquakes are one of the most dangerous natural hazards that occur suddenly and uncontrollably. They cause physical, psychological, and social damages in human societies [ 1 ]. Over the past two decades, 800 million people have been injured by natural disasters. Besides, natural disasters have caused 42 million deaths in the world [ 2 ]. Iran is always at risk of earthquakes due to its geographical location on the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic belt [ 3 , 4 ]. More than 70% of the major cities in Iran are vulnerable to substantial damages. The earthquakes of recent decades have not only caused the deaths of thousands but also have caused massive economic damage and destroyed many cities and villages in the world [ 5 , 6 ]. Iran has only 1 % of the world’s population, but the percentage of its earthquake-related deaths is absolutely higher [ 7 ]. The disaster management cycle has four phases including mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery. Preparedness is the most important phase in the disaster management cycle. Previous research in Iran has shown that the role of people as the most important and largest group has often been neglected in disaster preparedness program planning [ 8 ].

The Health Belief Model (HBM) describes the decision-making process that individuals use to adopt healthy behavior. It can be an effective framework for developing health promotion strategies [ 9 ]. Theoretically, in the HBM, perceived susceptibility, perceived severity, perceived benefits, perceived barriers, cues to action, and self-efficacy (the beliefs of individuals in their ability to prepare for disaster) predict behavior [ 1 , 9 , 10 ].

There are some studies on earthquake preparedness that have assessed the readiness of individuals based on their knowledge and skills [ 11 – 15 ]. Some studies have also considered structural and non-structural safety in some cities [ 16 ] and some studies have investigated students’ readiness [ 17 , 18 ]. There are a few studies that have used behavioral change models in the disaster area [ 5 ]. The Haraoka and Inal used the Health Belief Model to develop a questionnaire for earthquake preparedness [ 1 , 11 ].

Previous studies in Iran showed that most households did not have enough readiness and had a relatively high vulnerability to possible earthquake hazards [ 19 , 20 ]. Also, one study showed that improving the socio-economic status was correlated with improving the attitude of people about disaster preparedness [ 13 ]. In DeYoung et al.ʼs study, earthquake readiness was positively correlated with risk perception, self-efficacy, and trust in information about hazards through media [ 21 ].

To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study in Iran that examines earthquake preparedness of households, using a behavior change model. Considering the importance of earthquake preparedness of households, this study aims to asses the level of earthquake preparedness of households and its predictors based on HBM.

Study design and participants

This observational descriptive and analytical study was carried out in all counties of Hamadan province, located in the west of Iran, in 2019. These counties includes Hamadan (the capital of Hamadan province), Malayer, Tuyserkan, Nahavand, Razan, Bahar, Kabudarahang, Asadabad, and Famenin. Based on the previous study [ 19 ], the estimated sample size was 600 households. Cluster sampling was used for this study and we used the design effect of 1.5 plus 10% attrition. Subsequently, the final sample size was calculated at 1000 households. The data were collected from February to July 2019. From each county, a university graduate person was recruited and trained for data collection. The supervision and training were done by the first author. The verbal informed consent was obtained from all participants before the data gathering. The participants were first provided a description of the study and they were informed that the participation in the study was voluntary, and all study data were anonymous and confidential. Then, if they gave verbal informed consent, they would participate in the study and fill out the anonymous questionnaires. A person aged 18 or above was randomly selected from each household and answered the questions. For illiterate people, questionnaires were filled out through interviewing them. The inclusion criteria were being at least 18 years old and being able to answer the questions. The exclusion criteria were an incomplete questionnaire.

Participants have been selected by multi-stage cluster random sampling. First, stratified sampling was used for each county based on its urban and rural populations. Then, in urban and rural areas, a list of urban or rural health centers was listed and one health center was randomly selected in each county. After that, from the list of all households covered by the selected health center, one household was selected by simple random sampling and sampling started taking the clockwise direction of the selected household and continued until the required sample was collected. For selecting the sample of the urban population of Hamadan County, we selected one health center from each district by simple random sampling (in Hamadan city, there are four districts). In the next stage, from the list of covered households, one household was randomly selected and the sampling was started taking the clockwise direction until the required sample in each district was collected.

Measurements

The questionnaire used for data collection comprises four domains including 1) demographics, 2) earthquake preparedness 3) awareness on earthquake response, and 4) predictor of earthquake preparedness based on the HBM. Earthquake preparedness was response variable.

• Demographics included age, sex, occupation, education, economic status, family size, number of individuals over 60 years old and under 16, earthquake experience, homeownership, marital status, and having a person with a disease that needs medication at their home.
• We measured earthquake preparedness by an earthquake preparedness checklist [ 22 ]. This checklist was developed and validated by Spittal et al., in 2006. It consists of 23 questions with yes or no answers. The questions are about: having a working torch (flashlight), a first aid kit, a working battery radio, a working fire extinguisher, etc. [ 22 ]. We adapted this checklist by adding two items according to the context of the study. These two questions were: 1) do you know the necessary contact numbers such as fire station, police, and emergency so that you will be able to call them if needed?; 2) are you familiar with the phrase, “Drop, Cover, and Hold”? Also, we adapted it with some minor changes. We added “have learned first aid” to “have purchased first aid kit” statement. We added “and extra cloths and blankets” at the end of” put aside extra plastic bags and toilet paper for use as an emergency toilet” statement. We replaced “roof” with “my way” in “ensuring that the roof will probably not collapse in an earthquake. We added some examples to “take some steps at work” statement such as attending an earthquake preparedness class and having fire insurance. The content validity of the Persian checklist was tested by 10 experts. We calculated CVI and CVR equal to 0.92 and 0.95, respectively. Also, the face validity and reliability of this checklist were examined in a pilot study on 40 adults. According to their recommendations, minor revisions were made to increase the transparency and understandability of the statements. Likewise, the reliability of this checklist was measured by internal consistency (Chronbach α = 0.858). The total score of this checklist was ranging from 0 to 25 and the higher score reflects more preparedness.
• The awareness on earthquake response questionnaire included seven questions with true/false answers (In an earthquake: you should get down close to the ground; you should get under a big piece of furniture such as a desk or other covers; you should hold on to a firm object until the end of the shaking; you should stand in a doorway; If you are indoors during an earthquake, you must exit the building; If you are in bed during an earthquake, you should stay there and cover your head with a pillow; next to pillars of buildings and interior wall corners are the safe areas). One point was given for each correct answer. Therefore, the total score of this domain was seven points.
• The adapted questionnaire of earthquake preparedness based on the HBM was used. The original questionnaire has been established and validated by Inal et al. [ 1 ] in Turkey. The forward and backward translation method was used for translating the original questionnaire. According to the experts’ opinions, some minor changes were made to adapt the items of the questionnaire for the study population in the present study. Thereby, three questions were added to the questions of the cues to action (Radio and TV encourage me to prepare for disasters, I usually seek information about disaster preparedness from Radio and TV, and I usually obtain information about disaster preparedness from health providers). Besides, one question was added to the questions of perceived benefits (preparedness for disaster will reduce financial losses and injuries). Then, the content validity of the questionnaire was assessed by a panel of experts including 10 Health specialists in the field of health in disasters, health education, health promotion, and safety promotion (CVR = 0.92 & CVI = 0.85). Next, the face validity and reliability of the questionnaire were measured in a pilot study on 40 people over 18 years old. The reliability was calculated by using internal consistency. One question from the perceived severity (emergency and the experience of disasters does not change my life) and one question from self-efficacy (I cannot create an emergency plan with my neighbors) was excluded based on the results of Cronbach’s alpha. In Iran, neighbors don’t share their plans; therefore, it was logical to exclude these items. Finally, the questionnaire consisted of 33 questions, including perceived severity (2 questions, α = 0.709), perceived susceptibility (6 questions, α = 0.664), perceived benefits (4 questions, α = 0.758), perceived barriers (6 questions, α = 0.822), self-efficacy (7 questions, α = 0.677), cues to action (8 questions, α = 0.683), and total questions (33 questions, α = 0.809). All of the items were assessed by a 5-point Likert scale ranging from ‘completely disagree’ (one point) to ‘completely agree’ (5 points). Some items were scored reversely.

Statistical analysis

We used the analysis of variance (ANOVA) and independent t-test to determine the relationship between variables. Besides, the multivariate linear regression model was used to determine the predictors of household earthquake preparedness. The Stata 14.2 software was used to analyze the data.

In this study, 933 questionnaires were analyzed (response rate: 93.3%). The mean age of participants was 38.24 ± 12.85 years. Besides, 228 (24.44%) participants were male and 656 (70.31%) were female. About 80% of the participants did not have an academic education and had a diploma degree or less than a diploma degree. Also, 573 (61.41%) participants were homeowners (Table  1 ).

Basic and demographic characteristics of participants of earthquake preparedness study

The earthquake preparedness of the participants was low. The household preparedness score was 7.5 out of 25. In other words, the average earthquake preparedness of households was approximately 30%. Besides, the self-efficacy score was 60.79 ± 0.55 and the score of cues to action was 66.57 ± 0.45 (Table  2 ).

The mean scores (in percentage) of earthquake preparedness, constructs of Health Belief Model, and earthquake performance awareness of participants

The participants’ preparedness for the earthquake had a significant relationship with gender ( P  < 0.001), homeownership ( P  < 0.001), marital status ( P  < 0.001), and previous experience of a destructive earthquake ( P  < 0.001). Also, the mean score of earthquake preparedness was higher in those who reported moderate or good economic status. The mean difference was statistically significant by the Scheffe test ( P  < 0.001). Furthermore, the one-way ANOVA/Scheffe’s test showed that there was a significant difference between illiterate people and those who had either university education or diploma degree and similarly, a significant difference in earthquake preparedness was observed between primary education and those who had either academic education or diploma degree ( P  < 0.001) (Table  3 ).

The relationship between earthquake preparedness and demographic variables of participants by Independent T-Test and Analysis of Variance

The crude regression analysis showed that all constructs of the HBM except perceived severity were significant predictors of earthquake preparedness (P < 0.001) but after using stepwise regression, only perceived benefits ( P  < 0.006), cues to action ( P  < 0.001), and self-efficacy ( P  < 0.001), significantly predicted the earthquake preparedness (Table  4 ).

The relationship between earthquake preparedness and study variables, using Stepwise Linear Regression

In this study, we determined the level of earthquake preparedness of households and its predictors based on HBM. The earthquake preparedness of the participants was low. The participants’ preparedness for the earthquake had a significant relationship with homeownership, education, and previous experience of a destructive earthquake. Also, perceived benefits, cues to action, and self-efficacy significantly predicted the earthquake preparedness.

Despite the strong emphasis on earthquake preparedness to prevent its damaging effects, the findings of this study showed that most people had low preparedness for earthquakes which is similar to the findings of previous studies [ 18 , 23 – 25 ]. This can be very dangerous in areas that are vulnerable to earthquakes. Earthquake preparedness is related to the previous experience of destructive earthquakes and their damaging consequences. Households that had previously experienced destructive earthquakes were more prepared than those who had not previously experienced this event, which is similar to previous finding [ 26 , 27 ]. People who live in earthquakes zones and understand the potential losses from earthquakes are more likely to be prepared in comparison to people living in other areas [ 18 ]. This could be due to recalling previous injuries as well as the fear of recurrence of similar injuries in future earthquakes. This goes back to the culture of societies that their members don’t believe that they are at risk of the occurrence of hazards and their consequences until they experience these hazards. Regarding the high frequency of earthquakes in the Hamadan province, most of the participants in this study had previous earthquake experience but they were not prepared for earthquakes. Perhaps this is because most of the recent earthquakes in Hamadan did not result in deaths and as a result, these households do not take the risk of earthquakes seriously and do not find it essential to hold earthquake preparedness [ 28 ].

Besides, education was significantly correlated with households’ earthquake preparedness, which is similar to the results of the studies by Russell et al. and Ghadiri & Nasabi [ 29 , 30 ]. One explanation can be that people with higher education are more knowledgeable, more aware of earthquakes danger, and more inclined to acquire new skills [ 28 , 31 ].

In this study, we found that the preparedness of participants has a significant relationship with homeownership. Two previous studies showed homeowners were more prepared for earthquakes than renters [ 32 , 33 ], whereas a study in Ethiopia in 2014 showed that homeownership had no relationship with disaster preparedness [ 28 ]. One of the explanations is that owners can make the necessary changes despite preparedness costs due to place attachment, but more studies are required to confirm the role of homeownership.

We adjusted for multiple possibly confounding factors in our analysis. After adjusting the model, perceived benefit, cues to action, and self-efficacy had significant predictors of earthquake preparedness. It is more possible that people’s earthquake preparedness increases when they are aware of the benefits of earthquake preparedness. Furthermore, people with high self-efficacy feel they can prepare for earthquakes [ 34 ]. On the other hand, people may find the earthquake hazardous but if they feel enough confident to reduce damages of earthquakes, they will engage in preparedness. If people perceive the benefits of a healthy behavior higher than the barriers of it, they will engage in that healthy behavior. Therefore, people may perceive earthquakes as a high threat but it can be expected that higher perceived benefits and self-efficacy among them result in higher preparedness. One possible explanation is that the perceived benefits motivate people to perform a specific behavior and adopt an action [ 10 ]. Besides, the significant association of self-efficacy with preparedness at the household level for earthquakes could be explained by the positive and strong association of cues to actions with earthquake preparedness at the household level. Self-efficacy can be improved by observational learning, role modeling, and encouragement. Self-efficacy affects one’s efforts to change risk behavior and causes the continuation of one’s safe behavior despite obstacles that may decrease motivation [ 10 ]. Moreover, cues to action associated with earthquake preparedness [ 1 ]. Cues to action mention to influences of the social environment such as family, friends, and mass media. Mass media can play a vital role in educating the public about earthquake preparedness.

This study has several limitations. Firstly, using a self-reporting approach for data gathering, and secondly, due to the low number of relevant studies on earthquake preparedness based on behavioral change models, it was less possible to compare different studies with the findings of this study. Third, it should be noted that the results of this study can be generalized in the study population and setting, but for other settings it should be done with caution. Despite these limitations, this study had some strengths, we use a theoretical framework for identifying factors that influence earthquake preparedness with a large sample size. Also, the findings of this study are useful for emergency service providers, health authorities, and policymakers in designing and implementing earthquake preparedness programs. This research is also useful for researchers as it can be used as a basis for future researches. It is recommended to design and implement interventions to improve household preparedness for an earthquake based on self-efficacy, perceived benefits, and cues to action.

Households’ earthquake preparedness was insufficient and low. Controlling the damaging consequences of earthquakes is related to the preparedness for earthquakes and can prevent its devastating effects. Perceived benefits, cues to action, and self-efficacy had a significant relationship with earthquake preparedness. The possibility of people being more prepared is increased when they are aware of and understand properly the benefits of being prepared for earthquakes and other disasters. People with high self-efficacy also feel more empowered for taking better care of themselves and their families during disasters. Cues to action would also encourage earthquake preparedness. Since health centers and TV and radio programs were the primary sources of learning about earthquakes for the people, it is recommended that broadcasting provides related programs and educates people about earthquake preparedness. The predictors that were assessed in this study can be taken into account for designing and implementing proper interventions in this field.

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully thank all of the participants in this study.

Abbreviations

Authors’ contributions

MRM has made substantial contributions to the conception and design of the study, took responsibility for and coordinated the acquisition of data and contributed actively in the analysis of the data and the writing of the manuscript. FRS has made substantial contributions to the conception and design of the study, interpretation of the data, and writing up the manuscript. MS contributed to the design of the study and preparation of the manuscript. MRY was involved in the design of the study and the data gathering process. ADI contributed to the study design, data analysis, and interpretation. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

This study was approved and financially supported by the Deputy of Research and Technology of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences (number: 9707174168). The funder of this study had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or writing the manuscript.

Availability of data and materials

Ethics approval and consent to participate.

This study was approved by the Ethical Committee of Hamadan University of Medical Sciences (approval code: IR.UMSHA.REC.1397.359). This study was an observational questionnaire study and the anonymous questionnaires were used to collect data. Therefore, the verbal informed consent was obtained from all participants prior to participation in the study and filling out the questionnaires. The form of consent was approved by the ethics committee.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

All authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of earthquake preparedness amongst the elderly in risk areas: Chiang Rai, Thailand

Journal of Health Research

ISSN : 2586-940X

Article publication date: 9 January 2019

Issue publication date: 25 January 2019

Chiang Rai being an earthquake-prone city, it is essential to raise awareness about earthquake safety and readiness, especially amongst the elderly population who spend most of their time at home. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the earthquake preparedness of elders in relation to knowledge, attitude and practice.

Design/methodology/approach

This was an analytic cross-sectional study. Research data were collected from 480 elders of 60 years old and above. The research instruments were questionnaires about knowledge, attitude and self-assessment of practices in earthquake situations. Data were analyzed by number, percentage and a χ 2 test.

Of participants interviewed, 39.4 percent were aged between 60 and 66 years old. Overall, 94.0 percent of them had already experienced an earthquake, with 79.4 percent having experienced it in 2014. Participants had a good level of knowledge and attitude toward earthquake safety. Their practices toward earthquake readiness, however, were insufficient due to the lower practice scores (<12), especially found in the high seismic zone. The score level of knowledge, attitude and self-assessment of practice in earthquake situations showed that there is a difference in statistical significance ( p <0.05).

Originality/value

This study focuses attention on the need to increase levels of preparedness. Safety instructions and earthquake drills should be promoted and supported in order to prepare elders for an earthquake in the study area. Research findings identified in this study will help to address the specific needs of the elderly when implementing an earthquake disaster risk reduction plan.

• Earthquake preparedness
• Knowledge attitude practice

Songlar, T. , Pussadee La-or, N.P. , Chomchoe, C. and Khunthason, S. (2019), "Knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) of earthquake preparedness amongst the elderly in risk areas: Chiang Rai, Thailand", Journal of Health Research , Vol. 33 No. 1, pp. 2-13. https://doi.org/10.1108/JHR-12-2018-0167

Emerald Publishing Limited

Copyright © 2019, Tanika Songlar, Nicharuch Panjaphothiwat Pussadee La-or, Chalitar Chomchoe and Siriyaporn Khunthason

Published in Journal of Health Research . Published by Emerald Publishing Limited. This article is published under the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0) licence. Anyone may reproduce, distribute, translate and create derivative works of this article (for both commercial and non-commercial purposes), subject to full attribution to the original publication and authors. The full terms of this licence may be seen at http://creativecommons.org/licences/by/4.0/legalcode

Introduction

An earthquake is the shaking of the earth as it releases energy and decreases stress under the earth’s surface in order to balance the crust. The occurrence of earthquakes cannot be predicted by scientists [1, 2] . The seismic waves generated from an earthquake as well as the low frequency or long period waves result in their traveling long distances. The amplified waves cause resonance in buildings, and the resulting motion are strong enough to be felt by residents and could cause damage to buildings and a danger to lives [3] . In order to minimize disaster risk and reduce the vulnerability of people and property, wise management of land and the environment, and improving preparedness and early warning for adverse events are important. Disaster preparedness identifies planning, infrastructure, knowledge and capabilities, and training as the major components of maintaining a high level of preparedness. It was reported that the 7.8 magnitude earthquake that struck Nepal on April 25, 2015 killed about 9,000 people, and left many thousands more injured and homeless [4] . Experts said that being prepared plays a very significant role in ensuring safety. The main problem with Nepal is imparting knowledge of preparedness to the common people, who are generally poor judges of their own safety and think that they are safe until an earthquake occurs [5] . A survey of knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) about earthquakes is a tool to evaluate the population profile, including the levels of their preparedness to deal with disasters and prepare a suitable disaster risk reduction plan [6] .Previous studies suggest that occupation, the location of the home, age group and education are among the factors that can influence the knowledge, attitude toward and practice of earthquake preparedness. Moreover, the World Health Organization (WHO) identified older adults as a vulnerable population who are more likely to be at greater risk in a disaster [7] . They experience more negative impacts and are more likely to have higher morbidity rates than the rest of the population in a disaster [8] . Previous research findings suggest that the location of the home, knowledge about an earthquake, attitude score and age are factors that were associated with taking precautionary measures against an earthquake [9] .

Chiang Rai is a province in Thailand located in active fault zones, namely, the Phayao fault, the Mae Chan Fault and the Mae Ing fault [10] . On May 5, 2014, the Phayao fault caused the 6.3 magnitude earthquake which severely impacted on Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Phayao, Nan, Phrae, Lam Pang and Kamphaeng Phet. It also caused cracks in the lands, sinkholes, and wells and led to 1,285 aftershocks [11] . In order to reduce this enormous disaster risk in the future, earthquake readiness strategies have been developed by the related organizations in Thailand and neighboring ASEAN countries who are working to reduce the adverse results of a reoccurrence [12] . Projects to support earthquake readiness strategies should be developed in order to reduce earthquake damage as much as possible. Preparations must also be made with the area and community in mind. Additionally, the population, and particularly the elders living in earthquake-prone areas should be made aware of survival tips. It is of utmost importance to handle emergency situations appropriately and accurately. Since Thailand is moving toward becoming an aging society [13] , a program focused on Thai elders should be promoted in order to get ready for uncommon situations. The project for earthquake preparation provided by the Department of Local Administration is absolutely important and appropriate to the current elders in society and will inevitably be important to the entire population.

It is proven that earthquakes are more likely to occur in the same places [14] , making Chiang Rai a city at risk. Apart from implementing an effective earthquake preparation project, the population must also be able to survive in these situations. However, there is little research conducted by age group, especially amongst the elderly, regarding disaster management. This situation is further compounded by a lack of literature on enhancing disaster risk reduction from the unique perspectives of the elderly. From this standpoint, this research aimed to evaluate KAPs among the elderly people in Chiang Rai in the context of their distance from an active fault in the high, medium and low seismic zones. The results would be useful to the Department of Local Administration or other organizations as it can be used as a model to form a strategy on earthquake survival planning.

Methodology

Research design.

This research is an analytic cross-sectional study collecting data in the earthquake-prone risk area of Chiang Rai.

This study collected data in six districts of Chiang Rai in 2017. The areas were classified into three groups, namely, the high seismic zone group, the medium seismic zone group and the low seismic zone group.

Study sampling

We followed a two-step sampling process; the calculation of the sample size and the equation for calculating the sample was taken from Cochran (1963) which was cited in Watthana [15] (see Equation (1) ) by using the prevalence of earthquake experienced elders as 0.5. The calculated sample size was 441 (with 15 percent added to make up an additional margin if needed). It was therefore determined to use 480 samples for this research.

The 480 elders were selected by random sampling technique with the selection criterion of participants being more than or equal to 60 years old who had been living in Chiang Rai for at least one year. Because the research aimed to study the KAP levels of the elderly for preparedness in a future earthquake, the researchers were not concerned with any recall bias of the earthquake in Chiang Rai three years previously. Furthermore, the sample size of 480 was distributed by area and the intensity and scale of the shaking. There were three criteria of sampling areas of Chiang Rai based on the Mercalli (MM) Intensity Scale [16] of each area. The detail of the intensity scale and the sampling area is shown in Table I . Only four villages from each district (see Table I ) were selected with 20 elders randomly selected from each village resulting in 160 samples in each area (2 districts × 4 villages × 20 elders =160 samples): (1) n = z 2 p q e 2 , where n = sample size, P = prevalence, Z =1.96, p =0.5, e =0.05.

Research instruments

Questionnaires were used for the research tools. They surveyed the knowledge, attitude and the self-assessment in their practice of earthquake situations. The questionnaire consisted of four sections. These were: general information about the participant; test of knowledge about earthquake readiness (14 items); test of attitude about earthquake preparedness (10 items); and self-assessment of practice in earthquake situations. The fourth part comprised a 14-item checklist. Questionnaires were checked and verified by three experts who were experienced in the subject of earthquake readiness and experienced in evaluating KAPs of earthquake safety. Index of Item-Objective Congruence of the research instrument was 0.95. In addition, the formula of Cronbach’s α was used to check the validity of the questionnaires in 30 elders living in Mae Chan district. Its validity of knowledge, attitude, and practices were 0.83, 0.75 and 0.75, respectively.

Measurement

The interviewer posed nine questions to assess the demographic characteristics of the participants. These included: age, gender, occupation, income, education, caregiver status and previous earthquake experiences.

Regarding KAP about earthquake preparedness, 14, 10 and 12 questions, respectively, were asked to evaluate the participants’ KAPs. The knowledge question included general knowledge and knowledge of practices for earthquake mitigation. The attitude questions aimed to investigate the extent of earthquake preparedness whilst the practice questions were divided into three situations, namely, before, during and after an earthquake.

Data collection

Primarily, the research team wrote a letter to the Chief Executive of the SAO and Chief of the sub-district municipality requesting permission to collect the data. In addition, the heads of each village were contacted in order to explain the purpose of the research and ask for their cooperation. Before the fieldwork, all researchers were trained to accurately and appropriately interview participants and correctly deploy the questionnaires. Before commencing the interview, the research purpose and methodology was explained to all participants in terms of its background, purpose, data collection, advantages and the effect. All participants were then requested to sign the consent form. The team of researchers interviewed 480 elders for 30–40 min in the six districts of Mae Lao, Phan, Wiang Chai, Muang, Doi Luang and Mae Chan districts.

Data analysis

The data were checked and analyzed using SPSS version 20, 2014 (SPSS, Chicago, IL). General information of samples was analyzed by descriptive statistics, namely, frequency, percentage, mean and standard deviation. Data of knowledge, attitude and the practices in earthquake situations were analyzed by the criteria of knowledge level [17] , attitude and practices [14] . Inferential statistics (using a χ 2 test) were employed to examine the difference between KAPs in earthquake situations.

Ethical consideration

This research was certified by the Human Research Ethical Considerations Board of Mae Fah Luang University on June 2, 2017. The document number is 061/2560.

Of the 480 elders who were interviewed, results showed that 57.1 percent were females. Their ages were ranked into five groups. 39.4 percent are the oldest participants, who are between 60 and 66 years old. The mean is at 70.50 (SD=7.62). Of them, 68.8 percent graduated at primary school level; 67.1 percent of them were unemployed; 76.2 percent of them received an old age allowance as their main income; and 42.1 percent of them were looked after by their children.

Regarding earthquake experience, 94.0 percent of participants had experience of a previous earthquake, and 79.4 percent of them experienced it in 2014. Besides, 46.3 percent of participants followed the earthquake news via television. Only 23.8 and 4.4 percent of them received the news from the head of the village and wire broadcasting service, respectively ( Table II ).

Knowledge about earthquake readiness

Most of the participants knew how to survive when an earthquake occurs. There are three main aspects which were most frequently correct. First, 94.6 percent of participants accurately answered question 7, about earthquakes at different damage levels causing distinct effects toward human lives and their assets. In contrast, they mostly failed question 6 about the occurrence of earthquakes being predictable with only 62.5 percent of them answering correctly. Comparing the groups, the high seismic zone group was the most knowledgeable as shown in Table III .

Attitude about earthquake preparedness

The participants possessed a good level of knowledge about earthquake preparedness. Of them, 80 percent accurately answered the questionnaire. However, most of them had the wrong understanding about certain aspects as they incorrectly stated that people should immediately go back into the buildings after an earthquake. This result for question 9 is shown in Table IV .

Self-assessment of practice in earthquake situations

It is shown that all groups had fewer scores in this section of the questionnaire. The least score was in question 5 where only 8.1 percent of the participants joined in earthquake drills. In addition, for question 4, only 27.5 percent of them used to obtain information about practice for earthquake experience from their local authority. For question 6, just 28.8 percent of participants consulted and planned with their family about the shelter and duty for survival in case of an earthquake. Table V is the conclusion in this part Table V .

The difference of KAP in each area

A comparison of the KAP level of earthquake preparedness in each area shows a difference in the statistical significance ( p <0.05). The high seismic zone had the highest scores, 89.4 percent, in the earthquake knowledge part. The highest attitude score level of 94.4 percent belonged to the low seismic zone group and means that they have the most accurate attitude about earthquake readiness. The low seismic zone has the best score, 46.5 percent, for earthquake experience practices, as shown in Table VI .

Most participants had a good level of knowledge about earthquake preparedness. They may have been trained in how to survive in earthquake situations after the previous earthquake. So, they have an awareness of how to practice in an emergency situation. This finding confirms the research of Becker et al . [18] who mentioned that a person who directly experienced an earthquake situation will be wiser on earthquake experience and more conscious about it. Similarly, Sothnasatien [19] states that humans primarily learn via their experience.

In addition, participants have a good attitude about earthquake readiness due to the fact that they already experienced an earthquake and were directly affected. This idea relates to the study of Nelson and Quick [20] (cited in Jharidool, 2017, 7) which stated that attitude was influenced by direct experience and social learning. However, the participants’ attitude is not proper in some aspects, for example, the belief that people should promptly get back into the house after an earthquake is incorrect. Only 46.0 percent of them answered correctly on this question. Kantakanishtha [21] mentioned that earthquake preparedness of people was not enough because, in spite of experiencing an earthquake, they had not been severely affected.

Additionally, the correct and appropriate practices in earthquake situations were at a low level. This study found that, before the occurrence of an earthquake, the elders had not been given the correct guidance and instructions about earthquake preparedness and the process of participating in earthquake drills. Moreover, they failed to have a family meeting in order to plan the shelter and their duties in the event of an earthquake. When there is a lack of the above-mentioned activities, examples of inappropriate earthquake preparedness is likely to be higher. The study of Mala et al . [22] confirmed the above statement that building awareness toward preparedness of natural disasters helps people to cope with it more efficiently. Tuohy et al . [23] also noted that social readiness is essential for elders to appropriately handle an earthquake situation. Social readiness includes building appropriate rescue systems as well as maintaining good relations among neighbors. People, especially elders, could get help from neighbors. Social readiness is not only helpful for earthquake readiness or other emergencies but also helps with maintaining the health and welfare of older adults.

Three groups of participants were compared in order to study their practices in an earthquake situation. It showed that the practices of the high seismic zone group were at a good level. This contrasts with the study of Tuohy et al . [23] which stated that earthquake preparedness depended on the elder’s experiences. That is, an elder who already confronted earthquake situations would know how to survive in the time of an earthquake. Oral et al . [24] stated that an individual’s earthquake preparedness is based on prior experience. After analyzing the results, it showed that the scores of the high seismic zone group in relation to their attitudes are lower than for the low seismic zone group. Similarly, Ostad Taghizadeh et al . [25] mentioned that populations in the high seismic zone had earthquake preparedness levels that were lower than those who lived in the low seismic zone. The results showed that low levels of knowledge caused insufficient earthquake readiness. Moreover, education and age indicated attitudes toward earthquake preparedness. On the other hand, this does not agree with the study of Alan et al . [26] , which stated that a person living in the high seismic zone was wiser than a person living in the low seismic zone in terms of getting ready for an earthquake.

From the results, it is advisable to establish the need for disaster and earthquake training and increase preparedness by introducing workshops to enhance skills in preparedness. Furthermore, due to the high level of knowledge amongst elders in this area, it is important to consider the third UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction Framework that states [27] ; “Older persons have years of knowledge, skills and wisdom, which are invaluable assets to reduce disaster risk, and they should be included in the design of policies, plans and mechanisms, including for early warning” ( Figure 1 ). The elderly population are key agents for positive change in disaster risk reduction and management efforts. The familiar role of the elders should be taken into consideration and addressed, particularly so that their voice can be heard and also so their positive participation can help to mitigate the impacts of disasters.

The elders have a high knowledge level of earthquake readiness. Their attitude toward earthquake preparedness is satisfactory. In contrast, the correct and appropriate practices are at a low level. In particular, they lack safety instructions pertaining to earthquakes from the Department of Local Administration, earthquake drill participation and family meetings. Furthermore, their KAPs of earthquake preparedness are different in the statistical significance.

Older people’s associate in community disaster risk reduction

Mercalli intensity scale and sampling

General information of participants

Information of earthquake preparedness attitude

Information of practice in earthquake situations

The comparison of knowledge, attitude and practice in each area

Note: *Significant at p -value <0.05

1. Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Migration . Knowledge and preparedness of earthquake disaster . 2016 . [cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: http://122.155.1.141/upload/minisite/file_attach/36/56400b25bd008.pdf

2. Thailand, Department of Mineral Resource . Earthquake disaster . 2016 . [cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: www.op.mahidol.ac.th/orau/attachments/files/knowledge/earthquake_140516.pdf

3. Balendra T , Li Z . Seismic hazard of Singapore and Malaysia . Electron J Struct Eng . 2008 ; 1 , 57 - 63 .

4. Ibrahim FAA . Nurses knowledge, attitudes, practices and familiarity regarding disaster and emergency preparedness – Saudi Arabia . Am J Nurs Sci . 2014 ; 3 ( 2 ): 18 - 25 . doi: 10.11648/j.ajns.20140302.12

5. Devi AW , Sharma D . Awareness on earthquake preparedness: a key to safe life . Int J Nurs Res Pract . 2015 ; 2 ( 2 ): 12 - 17 .

6. Indonesia, National Agency for Disaster Management . Pilot survey of knowledge, attitude and practice (KAP) disaster preparedness in Padang city 2013 . 2014 . [cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: https://indonesia.unfpa.org/sites/default/files/pub-pdf/%28For_web%29_KAP_Survey_20131.pdf

7. World Health Organization [WHO] . WHO global report on falls prevention in older age . WHO ; 2008 . [cited 2018 Apr 26]. Available from: www.who.int/ageing/publications/Falls_prevention7March.pdf

8. Tekeli-Yeşil S , Dedeoğlu N , Braun-Fahrlaender C , Tanner M . Earthquake awareness and perception of risk among the residents of Istanbul . Nat Hazards . 2011 Oct ; 59 ( 1 ): 427 - 46 . doi: 10.1007/s11069-011-9764-1

9. Thailand, Seismological Bureau . Earthquake report in Thailand and adjacent areas in February 2016 . 2017 . [cited 2017 Dec 20]. Available from: www.earthquake.tmd.go.th/report/file/seismo-report1466157935.pdf

10. Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Migration of Chiang Rai . Chiang Rai disaster report . 2014 . [updated 2014 May 10; cited 2017 Dec 20]. Available from: https://reliefweb.int/report/thailand/chiang-rai-disaster-prevention-and-mitigation-office-finishes-survey-damaged-areas

11. Thailand, NIDA Center for Research & Development of Disaster Prevention & Management . Disaster management with ASEAN . 2012 . [updated 2013 May 28; cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: http://dpm.nida.ac.th/main/

12. Thailand, Foundation of Thai Gerontology Research and Development Institute . Situation of the Thai elderly 2013 . 2014 . [cited 2017 Dec 26]. Available from: www.dop.go.th/download/knowledge/knowledge_th_20160203150428_1.pdf

13. Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department . Earthquake . 2015 . [cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: www.tmd.go.th/info/info.php?FileID=77

14. Wechbantueng B . Basic knowledge about earthquakes . 2015 . [cited 2017 Dec 25]. Available from: www.earthquake.tmd.go.th/documents/file/seismodoc1404895189.pdf

15. Watthana D . Data analysis . 2014 . [cited 2017 Dec 28] (in Thai). Available from: http://research.bsru.ac.th/spare2/doc/stat-social/1.pdf

16. Bloom BS . Handbook on formation and summative evaluation of student learning . New York, NY : McGraw-Hill Book Company ; 1971 .

17. Best JW . Research in education . ( 4th ed ). Needham Heights , NJ : Prentice Hall ; 1981 .

18. Becker JS , Paton D , Johnston DM , Ronan KR , McClure J . The role of prior experience in informing and motivating earthquake preparedness . Int J Disaster Risk Reduct . 2017 ; 22 ( 2 ): 179 - 93 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.03.006

19. Sothnasatien S . Communication with society . Bangkok : Chulalongkorn University ; 1990 .

20. Kitti JD . Factors affecting attitude and awareness of risk management . Case study: an import export company. 2016. [cited 2017 Dec 28]. Available from: http://it.nation.ac.th/studentresearch/files/5509105f.pdf

21. Kantakanishtha B . People’s preparedness to earthquake disaster in San Kamphaeng Municipality area, San Kamphaeng district, Chiang Mai province . [cited 2017 Dec 16]. Available from: http://cmuir.cmu.ac.th/handle/6653943832/18481

22. Poolsub R , Waraegsiri B . Community self-management guidelines for earthquake disaster impact in Chiang Rai province . Journal of Social Academic . 2017 ; 10 ( 1 ): 82 - 97 . (in Thai)

23. Tuohy R , Stephens C , Johnston D . Older adults’ disaster preparedness in the context of the September 2010–December 2012 Canterbury earthquake sequence . Int J Disaster Risk Reduct . 2014 ; 9 ( 1 ): 194 - 203 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2014.05.010

24. Oral M , Yenel A , Oral E , Aydin N , Tuncay T . Earthquake experience and preparedness in Turkey . Disaster Prev Manag . 2015 ; 24 ( 1 ): 21 - 37 . doi: 10.1108/DPM-01-2013-0008

25. Ostad Taghizadeh A , Hosseini M , Navidi I , Mahaki AA , Ammari H , Ardalan A . Knowledge, attitude and practice of Tehran’s inhabitants for an earthquake and related determinants . PLoS Curr 2012 Aug ; 4 . doi: 10.1371/4fbbbe1668eef

26. Kirschenbaum A , Rapaport C , Canetti D . The impact of information sources on earthquake preparedness . Int J Disaster Risk Reduct . 2017 ; 21 ( 4 ): 99 - 109 . doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.10.018

27. Zhu X , Sun B . Study on earthquake risk reduction from the perspectives of the elderly . Saf Sc. 2017 ; 91 ( 2 ): 326 - 34 . doi: 10.1016/j.ssci.2016.08.028

Acknowledgements

The authors would like to specially thank the chief executive of the SAO, chief of the sub-district municipality, village leaders and all the participants for their collaboration and invaluable assistance. In addition, the authors thank the National Research Council of Thailand (NRCT), Mae Fah Luang University and Center of Excellence for the Hill tribe Health Research for helping to conduct the research.

Corresponding author

Related articles, all feedback is valuable.

Please share your general feedback

Report an issue or find answers to frequently asked questions

Contact Customer Support

Academia.edu no longer supports Internet Explorer.

To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds to  upgrade your browser .

Enter the email address you signed up with and we'll email you a reset link.

• We're Hiring!
• Help Center

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND LEVEL OF AWARENESS EARTHQUAKE20190604 9071 10rt8rp

Related Papers

EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS

joseph bernard bastida

Abstract Earthquake preparedness plays a vital role for the safety of every individual. This study was conducted to investigate the level of awareness and disaster preparedness in earthquake of the Sisters of Mary School – Boystown, Inc. This study aims to express quantitatively the level of awareness among the Sisters of Mary Community on to what extent the students, workers, teachers and sisters learn about disaster preparedness inside the school. This study utilized 5- point Likert scale earthquake preparedness survey sheet in determining the level of awareness and disaster preparedness of the 350 respondents proportioned as the whole population by stratified random sampling. Upon the course of the research, the researchers come up with the results. The findings signified that the SMS community agrees strongly that they are well prepared for any earthquake occurrences. All in all, the Sisters of Mary community is wellequipped with all the necessary precautions needed when an earthquake happens. The researchers recommended that the Sisters of Mary Community must maintain and improve their earthquake preparedness by having frequent earthquake drills.

AGE AND LEVEL OF AWARENESS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS RESEARCH

gilbert cos D dondoyano

A CORRELATIONAL SURVEY RESEARCH ON THE LEVEL OF AWARENESS ON DISASTER PREPAREDNESS

FINAL RESEARCH "A SEQUENTIAL EXPLANATORY RESEARCH ABOUT THE LEVEL OF AWARENESS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS"

Level of Awareness on Earthquake Preparedness

John Vincent Valenzona

determines and identifies the difference between teachers' and students' level of awareness on earthquake disaster preparedness and it's relationship

John Vincent Valenzona , joshua kim allen catedral

This study aimed to identify and compare the level of awareness on Earthquake preparedness of Teachers and Students

RESEARCH PROPOSAL

Dwight Fernandez

This study determines the level of performance and factors affecting the level of performance on emergency drills of secondary students of Cainta Catholic College. The respondents of this study are the 347 students from the Junior and Senior High School departments respectively. The primary purpose of the study was to investigate and propose a comprehensive plan of action to improve the disaster resiliency of the institution. Descriptive-evaluative method of research was utilized in order to describe the current situation and elicit useful feedback or implications for the action plan. The researchers utilized a questionnaire-checklist in order to answer the problems of this study. Specifically, this study will seek to answer the following questions: What is the profile of the respondents in terms of age and gender; what is the level of performance on emergency drills of selected secondary students of Cainta Catholic College with respect to awareness, participation, safety measures, and management strategy; what are the factors affecting the level of performance of selected secondary students on emergency drills in terms of awareness, participation, safety measures, and management strategy; and is there a significant difference between the performance on emergency drills of Cainta Catholic College and the factors affecting the level of performance of the selected secondary students? Through the problems stated, the researchers came up with the null hypothesis that there is no significant difference between the performance on emergency drills of Cainta Catholic College and the factors affecting the level of performance of the selected secondary students. After administering the questionnaire, the researchers used frequency and percentage to determine the profile of the respondents; weighted mean for the level of performance and factors affecting the level of performance on emergency drills; and ANOVA was used to determine the significant difference on the two variables. The findings of the study indicates that majority of the students that participated in this study are 16-17 years old. It is worthy to know that, the researchers were able to collect data from the two genders proportionally. The Management Strategy of Cainta Catholic College has the most efficient performance during emergency drills. This includes the employees, administrators, school disaster management council, and the equipment used during the drills. The awareness of students is the most important factor to be considered to improve the performance of Cainta Catholic College in emergency drills. The null hypothesis was accepted; therefore the performance during emergency drills and the factors affecting the performance has no significant difference.

correlational research

steljames gevana

This research is about the relationship of language skill and problem solving skill in the sisters of mary school-boystown ,inc

mark neil durban

This research focused on determining and explaining the student's values formation and the salient factors that contributing to the Grade 9 students in the Sisters of Mary School-Boystown, Inc. Tungkop, Minglanilla, Cebu School Year 2019-2020. The researchers hypothesized that there is no significant relationship between the Students Values Formation and the Salient Factors Contributing to this. A Mixed method design was used in this study, an Explanatory Sequential Research for quantitative phase: 205 will be drawn out from 419 Grade 9 students using stratified random sampling technique. And in qualitative phase: 20 students will be drawn out from 205 students of the grade 9 students. The Five Point Likert Scale was used to treat the data, so based on the results, the highest percentage in the demographic profile of the Grade 9 students were the students in the age of 14 years old in which in this stage they learned a lot of things and values. While they are growing they were already aware and learned a lot of things while they were guided by their mother sisters, helping brothers and also their fellow brothers as well. As a whole the researchers conclude that there is a significance between the age of the students and the factors affecting their values formation. It means that the age differs due to their values formation. Students Values Formation and the Salient Factors that contributing to this.

ferlez bagaan

Loading Preview

Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. You can download the paper by clicking the button above.

RELATED PAPERS

Cyreanth Trujulan

John Carlo Malicsi

Adrian Ferrer

John Roy Baran

Sisters of Mary School - Boystown, Inc.

level of happiness

Alexisnicole Balita

John Lloyd Capao

renz davon laga

Karl Renzo Povadora

ramsed anitaro

John Lloyd Capao , Ren Mark M . Opsinal

International Journal of Applied Research

roger malahay

Ka Mheya Adie

John kier A . Jumao-as

Olivia J Wilkinson

RESEARCH PAPER OF G11_C2

Ren Mark M . Opsinal

Clarisse Mae Abao

Tyron S A R V I D A Demate

Jesha Camille Gregorio , Wildom Rosario

CHRISTIAN CARRENO , paul sedigo

ACADEME - University of Bohol Graduate School and Professional Studies Journal

Elijah L . Sales

Jean rose Abejo

Alexander J . Corachea

Integration of the Learnings

Paul Delgado

Dennis Jay Segarra

inah alyssa agcaoili

Bea Balbacal

International Journal of Science and Research (IJSR) ISSN: 2319-7064

Sheena Mae T . Comighud, EdD

International Journal of Development and Sustainability

Tess de Guzman

Ma Teresa De Guzman

Social Science Baha and Save the Children

Jeevan Baniya

Junna Lynne R Pantino

Asian Intellect : Research and Education Journal

Pedro Bernaldez

Amor Vincent Castro

•   We're Hiring!
•   Help Center
• Find new research papers in:
• Health Sciences
• Earth Sciences
• Cognitive Science
• Mathematics
• Computer Science
• Academia ©2024

Comments on “The Impacts of Earthquakes on Air Pollution and Strategies for Mitigation: A Case Study of Turkey”

• Letter to the Editor
• Open access
• Published: 29 June 2024

Cite this article

You have full access to this open access article

• Kyoo-Man Ha   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2087-5707 1  

Avoid common mistakes on your manuscript.

Using the case of the Richter scale 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Turkey (as well as Syria) in 2023, Zanoletti and Bontempi (the corresponding author) (2024) investigated earthquake impacts on air pollution levels. Strong earthquakes, according to the researchers, put public health and the ecosystem at risk by releasing hazardous materials into the air, which can include soil and water, such as lead, asbestos, and various toxins. After looking over relevant literature and earlier research, scientists noted that, contrary to popular belief, the impacts of related earthquakes posed a far greater threat to society (Zanoletti and Bontempi 2024 ).

The majority of earthquake-related research has discussed the subject of building collapse, building codes, anti-seismic structures, building resilience, or else (Mungase et al. 2024 ). On the contrary, Zanoletti and Bontempi’s research on hazardous material release offered a unique opportunity to understand an unpopular aspect of the earthquake frame. A large number of earthquake researchers have worked hard to address various aspects of building safety. Namely, the topic of hazmat material release around earthquakes will undoubtedly contribute to forming unexpected anti-seismic strategies.

Negative impacts of volcanic ash on local communities were the main topic of discussion among researchers whenever volcanoes erupted nowadays. However, very few scientists referred to the possibility that volcanic ash contributed to the Earth’s temperature falling during climate change (Hagen and Azevedo 2023 ). In a similar vein, numerous researchers have investigated earthquake impacts on building safety. However, Zanoletti and Bontempi wrote superbly about the detrimental impacts of hazardous material release. In summary, the above two natural hazards were similar in nature, but they had different impacts, such as positive versus negative.

Based on research by Zanoletti and Bontempi, the following four disaster management principles ought to have received more equal support than they do now. First, the hazardous material release should be regarded as the secondary disaster resulting from the occurrence of earthquakes, given that cascading disasters include those extreme events (as the trigger) that unexpectedly generate other disasters in the field of disaster management (Alexander and Pescaroli 2019 ). People are still affected physically and socially by both earthquakes and the release of hazardous materials (which are cascading disasters).

There are two types of disasters—sudden-onset and slow-onset—depending on how quickly they start (Nguyen et al. 2024 ). Local communities are typically not given much time to respond to sudden-onset disasters, because they happen so suddenly. On the other hand, slow-onset disasters typically receive little (or less immediate) attention, because they have developed gradually over a region. Both earthquakes (as a sudden-onset disaster) and public health crises from hazardous material release (as a slow-onset disaster) have required tailored strategies during the disaster management cycle.

Regarding the notion that natural disasters are no longer exclusively natural in the modern field of disaster management, the occurrence of earthquakes is not entirely natural either (Deruelle 2023 ). It indicates that there have been frequent interactions between human factors—political, economic, social, cultural, and other environmental factors—and the occurrence of earthquakes. To be more specific, earthquake impacts, such as chemical material releases and public health emergencies, have been made worse by human activities (e.g., vulnerable assets) or social vulnerabilities (e.g., inequality).

Applications of comprehensive emergency management (CEM) may be necessary when earthquakes occur. The process of CEM encompasses all stakeholders, all hazards, all risks, and phases of the emergency management cycle (i.e., emergency prevention/mitigation, preparedness, response, and recovery) (Jensen and Kirkpatrick 2022 ). Due to grandiose (or ideal) management, it has been extremely difficult for the field to significantly accomplish the CEM objective. However, the field will proceed in the right direction of disaster management, as long as it theoretically depends on CEM.

Data availability

Not applicable.

Alexander D, Pescaroli G (2019) What are cascading disasters? UCL Open Environ 8(1):e003. https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444/ucloe.000003

Article   Google Scholar  

Deruelle F (2023) Natural disasters are not all natural. J Geo Env Earth Sci Int 27(11):74–94. https://doi.org/10.9734/JGEESI/2023/v27i11727

Hagen M, Azevedo A (2023) Influence of volcanic activity on weather and climate changes. Atmos Clim Sci 13(2):138–158. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2023.132009

Article   CAS   Google Scholar  

Jensen J, Kirkpatrick S (2022) Local emergency management and comprehensive emergency management (CEM): a discussion prompted by interviews with Chief Resilience Officers. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct 79:103136. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103136

Mungase S, Ranjane V, Patil S (2024) Earthquake-resistant buildings. Int Res J Modernization Eng Technol Sci 06(03):421–426 https://www.irjmets.com/uploadedfiles/paper//issue_3_march_2024/50042/final/fin_irjmets1709618387.pdf

Google Scholar  

Nguyen Q, Spilker G, Koubi V, Bohmelt T (2024) How sudden- versus slow-onset environmental events affect self-identification as an environmental migrant: evidence from Vietnamese and Kenyan survey data. PLOS ONE 19(1):e0297079. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0297079

Zanoletti A, Bontempi E (2024) The impacts of earthquakes on air pollution and strategies for mitigation: a case study of Turkey. Environ Sci Pollut Res 31:24662–24672. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-32592-8

Download references

Author information

Authors and affiliations.

Faculty of Resilience, Rabdan Academy, Abu Dhabi, UAE

Kyoo-Man Ha

You can also search for this author in PubMed   Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kyoo-Man Ha .

Ethics declarations

Competing interest.

The author declares that he has no financial or non-financial conflicts of interest wih this manuscript.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: Philippe Garrigues

Publisher’s note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Rights and permissions

Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Ha, KM. Comments on “The Impacts of Earthquakes on Air Pollution and Strategies for Mitigation: A Case Study of Turkey”. Environ Sci Pollut Res (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-34152-6

Download citation

Received : 31 May 2024

Accepted : 24 June 2024

Published : 29 June 2024

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-024-34152-6

Share this article

Anyone you share the following link with will be able to read this content:

Sorry, a shareable link is not currently available for this article.

Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative

• Find a journal
• Publish with us
• Track your research

Top 21+ Disaster Management Project Ideas [Updated 2024]

Disaster management is all about being prepared for natural or man-made calamities and minimizing their impact on communities. As students, understanding disaster management can be both enlightening and practical. In this blog, we’ll explore several disaster management project ideas related to disaster management that you can undertake to learn more about this crucial field.

Why Disaster Management Projects Matter

Table of Contents

Disasters can strike anytime, anywhere, affecting thousands of lives and properties. By learning about disaster management through projects, students can:

• Increase Awareness: Understand different types of disasters and their impacts.
• Develop Skills: Learn practical skills like planning, communication, and teamwork.
• Contribute to Community: Help communities become more resilient and prepared.

What Are The Types of Disasters to Consider?

Before diving into project ideas, it’s essential to know the types of disasters:

Natural Disasters

• Earthquakes
• Hurricanes/Cyclones

Man-Made Disasters

• Industrial accidents
• Chemical spills
• Nuclear accidents
• Terrorism incidents

What Are The 5 Disaster Management Plans?

Disaster management plans typically include the following five key components:

• Risk Assessment and Planning: Identifying potential hazards and assessing their risks to the community or organization.
• Preparedness: Developing and implementing strategies, protocols, and resources to respond effectively in case of a disaster. This includes training personnel, conducting drills, and preparing emergency kits.
• Response: Right after a disaster happens, quick actions are taken to rescue people, safeguard belongings, and fulfill basic necessities. This involves deploying emergency services, conducting search and rescue operations, and providing medical care.
• Recovery: Long-term efforts to restore and rebuild affected areas after a disaster. This includes repairing infrastructure, supporting displaced individuals, and restoring community services.
• Mitigation: Actions taken to reduce or eliminate the risk and impact of future disasters. This involves implementing building codes, improving infrastructure resilience, and educating the community on disaster preparedness.

21+ Disaster Management Project Ideas: Category Wise

Natural disaster preparedness projects.

• Earthquake Preparedness Plan:
• Develop evacuation routes and safe zones.
• Create earthquake drills and awareness campaigns.
• Flood Risk Assessment:
• Study local flood-prone areas and predict risk levels.
• Propose flood mitigation strategies like barriers or early warning systems.
• Hurricane/Cyclone Preparedness Kit:
• Design and assemble kits with essentials like food, water, and first aid.
• Educate communities on hurricane preparedness.
• Tsunami Evacuation Simulation:
• Map out tsunami evacuation routes and safe areas.
• Conduct simulations to practice response protocols.
• Wildfire Prevention Campaign:
• Educate communities on fire safety and prevention measures.
• Create awareness about forest management practices.

Man-Made Disaster Management Projects

• Chemical Spill Response Plan:
• Develop protocols for handling chemical spills in industrial areas.
• Train personnel on containment and cleanup procedures.
• Nuclear Disaster Preparedness Drill:
• Simulate responses to a nuclear accident, including evacuation and radiation monitoring.
• Study the effects of radiation and safety measures.
• Terrorism Preparedness Workshop:
• Educate communities on recognizing and responding to terrorist threats.
• Develop communication strategies and emergency response plans.
• Industrial Accident Risk Assessment:
• Identify potential hazards in local industries and propose safety measures.
• Create emergency response teams and protocols.
• Cybersecurity and Data Breach Response Plan:
• Educate organizations on cybersecurity risks and prevention strategies.
• Develop protocols for responding to data breaches and securing sensitive information.

Community Awareness and Education Projects

• Disaster Preparedness Fair:
• Organize an event showcasing various aspects of disaster preparedness.
• Conduct workshops and demonstrations and distribute preparedness kits.
• School Emergency Response Training:
• Train students and staff on responding to emergencies like lockdowns or medical emergencies.
• Develop protocols for communication and reunification.
• Public Health Emergency Response Plan:
• Create strategies for managing outbreaks like pandemics or epidemics.
• Educate communities on hygiene, vaccination, and quarantine procedures.
• Disaster Risk Reduction in Urban Planning:
• Assess urban vulnerabilities and propose infrastructure improvements.
• Advocate for zoning laws and building codes to mitigate disaster risks.
• Climate Change Adaptation Project:
• Study the local impacts of climate change (e.g., rising temperatures, sea-level rise).
• Develop adaptation strategies for communities and ecosystems.

Technology and Innovation Projects

• Drone Technology in Disaster Response:
• Investigate the use of drones for search and rescue operations.
• Develop protocols for drone deployment during disasters.
• Early Warning Systems Development:
• Design and implement systems for early detection of disasters like earthquakes or tsunamis.
• Integrate with communication networks for timely alerts.
• GIS Mapping for Disaster Management:
• Create GIS maps to visualize disaster-prone areas and vulnerable populations.
• Use GIS for resource allocation and evacuation planning.
• Mobile App for Emergency Response:
• Develop an app for reporting emergencies, accessing information, and receiving alerts.
• Include features like first aid instructions and emergency contacts.
• 3D Printing for Disaster Relief Supplies:
• Explore the use of 3D printing to create emergency shelters or medical supplies.
• Test prototypes and evaluate their effectiveness in disaster scenarios.

Research and Analysis Projects

• Impact of Natural Disasters on Infrastructure:
• Study the effects of disasters on roads, bridges, and buildings.
• Propose strategies for improving infrastructure resilience.
• Economic Impact Assessment of Disasters:
• Analyze the economic consequences of disasters on local businesses and industries.
• Develop strategies for economic recovery and resilience.
• Psychosocial Support for Disaster Survivors:
• Research mental health challenges faced by disaster survivors.
• Design interventions and support programs for psychological recovery.
• Water Management in Disaster Prone Areas:
• Evaluate water supply and sanitation systems’ vulnerability to disasters.
• Propose solutions for ensuring access to clean water during emergencies.
• Historical Analysis of Disaster Management Policies:
• Study past disasters and the evolution of disaster management policies.
• Assess effectiveness and identify areas for improvement in current practices.

How To Make a Project on a Natural Disaster?

Creating a project on natural disasters involves several steps to ensure it is informative, engaging, and educational. Here’s a structured approach to make a project on natural disasters:

1. Choose a Specific Natural Disaster

• Select a specific type of natural disaster to focus on, such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, or wildfires. Consider factors like prevalence in your region or personal interest.

2. Research and Gather Information

• Causes and Mechanisms: Understand how the chosen disaster occurs (e.g., seismic activity for earthquakes, weather patterns for hurricanes).
• Effects: Learn about the impacts on the environment, infrastructure, and human populations.
• Historical Examples: Study past occurrences of the disaster, both globally and locally if applicable.

3. Project Objectives and Scope

• Define the objectives of your project. Decide whether you want to focus on prevention, preparedness, response, or recovery aspects of the disaster. Determine the scope of your project based on available resources and time.

4. Create Project Components

A. introduction.

• Overview: Provide a brief introduction to the natural disaster, including its definition and significance.
• Objective: State the goals of your project and what you aim to achieve.

B. Causes and Mechanisms

• Explain how the disaster occurs, using diagrams or illustrations if possible.
• Describe the scientific principles or factors involved (e.g., tectonic plate movements for earthquakes , atmospheric conditions for hurricanes).
• Discuss the environmental, social, and economic impacts of the disaster.
• Include case studies or examples to illustrate these impacts.

D. Prevention and Mitigation

• Propose strategies and measures to prevent or mitigate the effects of the disaster.
• Discuss engineering solutions, early warning systems, land-use planning, or policy recommendations.

E. Preparedness

• Outline steps individuals or communities can take to prepare for the disaster.
• Include emergency kits, evacuation plans, and community drills.

F. Response and Recovery

• Describe the actions to be taken during and immediately after the disaster strikes.
• Highlight the roles of emergency services, NGOs, and government agencies in response and recovery efforts.

5. Presentation Format

Decide on the format of your project presentation:

• Poster: Visual presentation with images, diagrams, and concise text.
• Report: Written document with sections covering each aspect of the project.
• Presentation: Oral presentation with slides summarizing key points.

6. Include Visuals and Data

• Enhance your project with visuals such as maps, charts, graphs, and photographs. These help in explaining concepts, illustrating impacts, and making your presentation more engaging.

7. Incorporate Examples and Case Studies

• Use real-life examples and case studies to illustrate key points and provide context to your project. This adds credibility and demonstrates practical applications of your research.

8. Conclusion and Recommendations

• Summarize the main findings and conclusions of your project.
• Provide recommendations for future research or actions to improve disaster preparedness and response.

9. Review and Feedback

• Before finalizing your project, review it for accuracy, clarity, and completeness. Seek feedback from peers, teachers, or mentors to improve the quality of your work.

10. Presentation and Sharing

• Present your project to your class, school, or community. Be prepared to answer questions and engage in discussions about your findings and recommendations.

These disaster management project ideas provide a hands-on approach to learning about disaster management. By undertaking these projects, students can not only deepen their understanding of disasters but also contribute positively to their communities.

Always remember, getting ready is the first thing to do to make sure disasters have less effect and keep everyone safe. Choose a project that interests you and start your path to becoming skilled in managing disasters!

Related Posts

Step by Step Guide on The Best Way to Finance Car

The Best Way on How to Get Fund For Business to Grow it Efficiently

Leave a comment cancel reply.

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *