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Global economy - Statistics & Facts

The rise of china, unemployment and rising inflation, key insights.

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Global gross domestic product (GDP) 2028

Global inflation rate from 2000 to 2028

Countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 2022

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Countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) 2022

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Basic Statistic Global gross domestic product (GDP) 2028
Basic Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) of selected global regions 2022
Premium Statistic GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries 2022
Basic Statistic Countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) 2022
Basic Statistic Share of global regions in the gross domestic product 2022
Basic Statistic Global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 2022
Premium Statistic Annual change in CPI 2015-2023, by country

Global gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices from 1985 to 2028 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Gross domestic product (GDP) of selected global regions 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) of selected global regions at current prices in 2022 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

GDP of the main industrialized and emerging countries 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) of the main industrialized and emerging countries in current prices in 2022 (in trillion U.S. dollars)

The 20 countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Share of global regions in the gross domestic product 2022

Share of global regions in the gross domestic product (adjusted for purchasing power) in 2022

Global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 2022

Global gross domestic product (GDP) per capita from 2012 to 2022, at current prices (in U.S. dollars)

Annual change in CPI 2015-2023, by country

Annual change in consumer price index (CPI) in selected countries worldwide from 2015 to 2023

Global economic indicators

Basic Statistic Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of the industrial sector August 2023
Premium Statistic Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in developed and emerging countries 2020-2024
Premium Statistic Global consumer confidence index 2020-2023
Premium Statistic Consumer confidence in developed and emerging countries 2023
Premium Statistic Industrial production growth worldwide 2019-2024, by region
Basic Statistic Average annual wages in major developed countries 2008-2022
Premium Statistic Wage growth in developed countries 2019-2024
Premium Statistic Global policy uncertainty index monthly 2019-2023

Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of the industrial sector August 2023

Global Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of the industrial sector from August 2021 to August 2023 (50 = no change)

Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in developed and emerging countries 2020-2024

Manufacturing PMI (Industrial PMI) in key developed and emerging economies from January 2020 to February 2024 (50 = no change)

Global consumer confidence index 2020-2023

Global consumer confidence in developed and emerging countries from January 2020 to December 2023

Consumer confidence in developed and emerging countries 2023

Consumer confidence in developed and emerging countries in November 2023

Industrial production growth worldwide 2019-2024, by region

Global industrial production growth between January 2019 to February 2024, by region

Average annual wages in major developed countries 2008-2022

Average annual wages in major developed countries from 2008 to 2022 (in U.S. dollars)

Wage growth in developed countries 2019-2024

Wage growth in major developed countries from January 2020 to March 2024

Global policy uncertainty index monthly 2019-2023

Global economic policy uncertainty index from January 2019 to November 2023

Gross domestic product

Basic Statistic Share of the main industrialized and emerging countries in the GDP 2022
Basic Statistic Countries with the largest proportion of global gross domestic product (GDP) 2022
Basic Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the main industrialized and emerging countries
Basic Statistic Countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita 2022
Basic Statistic Countries with the lowest estimated GDP per capita 2023
Basic Statistic Share of economic sectors in the global gross domestic product from 2012 to 2022
Basic Statistic Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product, by global regions 2022
Basic Statistic Proportions of economic sectors in GDP in selected countries 2022

Share of the main industrialized and emerging countries in the GDP 2022

Share of the main industrialized and emerging countries in the gross domestic product (adjusted for purchasing power) in 2022

Countries with the largest proportion of global gross domestic product (GDP) 2022

The 20 countries with the largest proportion of the global gross domestic product (GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) in 2022

Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the main industrialized and emerging countries

Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the main industrialized and emerging countries in current prices in 2022 (in U.S. dollars)

The 20 countries with the largest gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2022 (in U.S. dollars)

Countries with the lowest estimated GDP per capita 2023

The 20 countries with the lowest estimated gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in 2023 (in U.S. dollars)

Share of economic sectors in the global gross domestic product from 2012 to 2022

Share of economic sectors in the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 2012 to 2022

Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product, by global regions 2022

Share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) of selected global regions in 2022

Proportions of economic sectors in GDP in selected countries 2022

Proportions of economic sectors in the gross domestic product (GDP) in selected countries in 2022

Economic growth

Basic Statistic Growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) 2028
Premium Statistic Forecast on the GDP growth in selected world regions until 2028
Premium Statistic Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast in selected countries until 2028
Basic Statistic Countries with the highest growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) 2022
Basic Statistic The 20 countries with the greatest decrease of the gross domestic product in 2022
Premium Statistic GDP growth in the leading industrial and emerging countries 2nd quarter 2023

Growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) 2028

Growth of the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 1980 to 2022, with forecasts until 2028 (compared to the previous year)

Forecast on the GDP growth in selected world regions until 2028

Growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in selected world regions from 2018 to 2028 (compared to the previous year)

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecast in selected countries until 2028

Growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in selected countries from 2018 to 2028 (compared to the previous year)

Countries with the highest growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) 2022

The 20 countries with the highest growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 (compared to the previous year)

The 20 countries with the greatest decrease of the gross domestic product in 2022

The 20 countries with the greatest decrease of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 (compared to the previous year)

GDP growth in the leading industrial and emerging countries 2nd quarter 2023

Growth of the real gross domestic product (GDP) in the leading industrial and emerging countries from 2nd quarter 2021 to 2nd quarter 2023 (compared to the previous quarter)

Unemployment

Basic Statistic Number of unemployed persons worldwide 1991-2024
Basic Statistic Global unemployment rate 2004-2023
Basic Statistic Unemployed persons in selected world regions 2024
Basic Statistic Unemployment rate in selected world regions 2022
Basic Statistic Youth unemployment rate in selected world regions 2022
Premium Statistic Monthly unemployment rate in industrial and emerging countries August 2023
Premium Statistic Breakdown of unemployment rates in G20 countries 2024

Number of unemployed persons worldwide 1991-2024

Number of unemployed persons worldwide from 1991 to 2024 (in millions)

Global unemployment rate 2004-2023

Global unemployment rate from 2004 to 2023 (as a share of the total labor force)

Unemployed persons in selected world regions 2024

Number of unemployed persons in selected world regions in 2021 and 2022, up to 2024 (in millions)

Unemployment rate in selected world regions 2022

Unemployment rate in selected world regions between 2017 and 2022

Youth unemployment rate in selected world regions 2022

Youth unemployment rate in selected world regions in 2000 to 2022

Monthly unemployment rate in industrial and emerging countries August 2023

Unemployment rate in the leading industrial and emerging countries from August 2022 to August 2023

Breakdown of unemployment rates in G20 countries 2024

Unemployment rate of G20 countries in 2024

Global trade

Premium Statistic Monthly change in goods trade globally 2018-2024
Basic Statistic Leading export countries worldwide 2023
Premium Statistic Leading import countries worldwide 2022
Premium Statistic The 20 countries with the highest trade surplus in 2022
Premium Statistic The 20 countries with the highest trade balance deficit in 2022
Basic Statistic Trade: export value worldwide 1950-2022
Premium Statistic Global merchandise imports index 2019-2023, by region
Premium Statistic Global merchandise exports index 2019-2023, by region

Monthly change in goods trade globally 2018-2024

Change in global goods trade volume from January 2018 to February 2024

Leading export countries worldwide in 2023 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Leading import countries worldwide 2022

Leading import countries worldwide in 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

The 20 countries with the highest trade surplus in 2022

The 20 countries with the highest trade surplus in 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

The 20 countries with the highest trade balance deficit in 2022

The 20 countries with the highest trade balance deficit in 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Trade: export value worldwide 1950-2022

Trends in global export value of trade in goods from 1950 to 2022 (in billion U.S. dollars)

Global merchandise imports index 2019-2023, by region

Global merchandise imports index between January 2019 to November 2023, by region

Global merchandise exports index 2019-2023, by region

Global merchandise exports index from January 2019 to November 2023, by region

Basic Statistic Global inflation rate from 2000 to 2028
Basic Statistic Inflation rate in selected global regions in 2022
Premium Statistic Monthly inflation rates in developed and emerging countries 2021-2024
Basic Statistic Inflation rate of the main industrialized and emerging countries 2022
Basic Statistic Countries with the highest inflation rate 2022
Basic Statistic Countries with the lowest inflation rate 2022

Global inflation rate from 2000 to 2022, with forecasts until 2028 (percent change from previous year)

Inflation rate in selected global regions in 2022

Inflation rate in selected global regions in 2022 (compared to previous year)

Monthly inflation rates in developed and emerging countries 2021-2024

Monthly inflation rates in developed and emerging countries from January 2021 to March 2024 (compared to the same month of the previous year)

Inflation rate of the main industrialized and emerging countries 2022

Estimated inflation rate of the main industrialized and emerging countries in 2022 (compared to previous year)

Countries with the highest inflation rate 2022

The 20 countries with the highest inflation rate in 2022 (compared to the previous year)

Countries with the lowest inflation rate 2022

The 20 countries with the lowest inflation rate in 2022 (compared to the previous year)

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Technology and the Global Economy

Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as a basis for international trade, much recent quantitative equilibrium modeling of the global economy builds on particular probabilistic assumptions about technology. We review these assumptions and how they deliver a unified framework underlying a wide range of static and dynamic equilibrium models.

When citing this paper, please use the following: Eaton J, Kortum S. 2024. Technology and the Global Economy. Annu. Rev. Econ.: Submitted. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-economics-080218-025541. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research.

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World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024

Global economic growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 per cent in 2023 to 2.4 per cent in 2024, trending below the pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.0 per cent, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024. This latest forecast comes on the heels of global economic performance exceeding expectations in 2023. However, last year’s stronger-than-expected GDP growth masked short-term risks and structural vulnerabilities.

The UN’s flagship economic report presents a sombre economic outlook for the near term. Persistently high interest rates, further escalation of conflicts, sluggish international trade, and increasing climate disasters, pose significant challenges to global growth.

The prospects of a prolonged period of tighter credit conditions and higher borrowing costs present strong headwinds for a world economy saddled with debt, while in need of more investments to resuscitate growth, fight climate change and accelerate progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

“2024 must be the year when we break out of this quagmire. By unlocking big, bold investments we can drive sustainable development and climate action, and put the global economy on a stronger growth path for all,” said António Guterres, United Nations Secretary-General. “We must build on the progress made in the past year towards an SDG Stimulus of at least $500 billion per year in affordable long-term financing for investments in sustainable development and climate action.”

Subdued growth in developed and developing economies Growth in several large, developed economies, especially the United States, is projected to decelerate in 2024 given high interest rates, slowing consumer spending and weaker labour markets. The short-term growth prospects for many developing countries – particularly in East Asia, Western Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean – are also deteriorating because of tighter financial conditions, shrinking fiscal space and sluggish external demand. Low-income and vulnerable economies are facing increasing balance-of-payments pressures and debt sustainability risks. Economic prospects for small island developing States, in particular, will be constrained by heavy debt burdens, high interest rates and increasing climate-related vulnerabilities, which threaten to undermine, and in some cases, even reverse gains made on the SDGs.

Inflation trending down but recovery in labour markets still uneven Global inflation is projected to decline further, from an estimated 5.7 per cent in 2023 to 3.9 per cent in 2024. Price pressures are, however, still elevated in many countries and any further escalation of geopolitical conflicts risks renewed increases in inflation.

In about a quarter of all developing countries, annual inflation is projected to exceed 10 per cent in 2024, the report highlights. Since January 2021, consumer prices in developing economies have increased by a cumulative 21.1 per cent, significantly eroding the economic gains made following the COVID-19 recovery. Amid supply-side disruptions, conflicts and extreme weather events, local food price inflation remained high in many developing economies, disproportionately affecting the poorest households.

“Persistently high inflation has further set back progress in poverty eradication, with especially severe impacts in the least developed countries,” said Li Junhua, United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs. “It is absolutely imperative that we strengthen global cooperation and the multilateral trading system, reform development finance, address debt challenges and scale up climate financing to help vulnerable countries accelerate towards a path of sustainable and inclusive growth.”

According to the report, the global labour markets have seen an uneven recovery from the pandemic crisis. In developed economies, labour markets have remained resilient despite a slowdown in growth. However, in many developing countries, particularly in Western Asia and Africa, key employment indicators, including unemployment rates, are yet to return to pre-pandemic levels. The global gender employment gap remains high, and gender pay gaps not only persist but have even widened in some occupations.

Related Sustainable Development Goals

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Global Economy & Trade

Americans remain critical of china.

About eight-in-ten Americans report an unfavorable view of China, and Chinese President Xi Jinping receives similarly negative ratings.

U.S.-Germany Relationship Remains Solid, but Underlying Policy Differences Begin to Show

85% of Americans and 77% of Germans see the relationship between their countries as good. A majority of Americans see Germany as a partner on key issues, including dealing with China and the war in Ukraine. But Germans are less confident about partnering with the United States on China policy.

Comparing Views of the U.S. and China in 24 Countries

We examine how the U.S. and China stack up to one another on more than 10 measures of international public opinion, spanning from confidence in their leaders to views of their universities and technological achievements.

Americans name China as the country posing the greatest threat to the U.S.

In an open-ended question allowing Americans to name which country they see as the greatest threat to the U.S., 50% name China.

Americans see U.S. aid to developing countries as more beneficial than Chinese assistance

More than a third of Americans (37%) say foreign aid from the United States and China both benefits and harms developing countries.

China’s Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey

A median of 76% of adults in the 24 countries surveyed say China does not take into account the interests of other countries in its foreign policy. Majorities in most countries also say China does not contribute to global peace and stability.

Economic ratings are poor – and getting worse – in most countries surveyed

Majorities of adults in 18 of 24 countries surveyed this spring rate their nation’s economic situation poorly.

Methodology

Results presented in this data essay are drawn from nationally representative surveys conducted over the past 20 years in more than 60 countries.

How Global Public Opinion of China Has Shifted in the Xi Era

The Chinese Communist Party is preparing for its 20th National Congress, an event likely to result in an unprecedented third term for President Xi Jinping. Since Xi took office in 2013, opinion of China in the U.S. and other advanced economies has turned more negative. How did it get to be this way?

Negative Views of China Tied to Critical Views of Its Policies on Human Rights

Large majorities in most of the 19 countries surveyed have negative views of China, but relatively few say bilateral relations are bad.

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ABOUT PEW RESEARCH CENTER Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts .

Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, September 2023

Overall, consumer confidence remained broadly stable across our surveyed countries but still leaned toward saving rather than spending—although confidence dipped in China. In Brazil, consumer confidence rose to 96.8 in August, up from 94.8 in July—the highest reading since February 2014. Russia is somewhat of an outlier among our surveyed economies: domestic consumer demand remains robust, fueled by growth in real wages and consumer credit, which in July was up by 11% since the start of the year.

Core inflation has been on a downward trend in the US, standing at 4.3% for the 12 months ending August 2023 (4.7% July 2023)—and significantly down from the September 2022 figure of 6.6%. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s one-year-ahead inflation expectation rose to 3.6% at the short-term horizon, breaking a series of four consecutive declines. Overall, the inflation outlook remains stable with inflation expectations of around 2.0–2.5%. Eurozone inflation is expected to be 4.3% in September 2023, down from 5.2% in August 2023 (5.3% in July), according to Eurostat—the main driver being food-price inflation (9.7% in August but down to 8.8% in September). In the UK, consumer price index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly fell to 6.7% in August (6.8% in July), while core inflation (excluding the price of energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco) dropped to 6.2% from 6.9%. Inflation is resurgent in Russia, affecting both consumers and producers; it is declining in India after recent increases and remains close to 0% in China. Oil prices surged to $85–90 per barrel amid OPEC’s extension of oil production cuts, whereas food prices are continuing the downward trend that began in 2022.

In August, central banks in the eurozone, Russia, and the UK raised interest rates, whereas Brazil’s central bank reduced interest rates for the first time since 2021 in July. The eurozone and Russia raised interest rates again in September, with the European Central Bank (ECB) hiking its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.5% on September 14 and rates in Russia reaching 13.0%. In the US, September’s Federal Open Markets Committee (FOMC) meeting concluded with no new hikes of the current interest rate, while the Bank of England maintained its policy rate at 5.25% this month. Meanwhile, US national debt reached a historic milestone by passing $33 trillion for the first time.

The buoyancy of India’s economy contrasts with other surveyed countries. The economic activity index for the second quarter of 2023 nowcasts growth of 6.6% in India versus real GDP growth of 7.8% in the first quarter (April–June). Meanwhile, annual average real GDP growth in the eurozone is expected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.7% in 2023 before recovering to 1.0% in 2024 and to 1.5% in 2025. The ECB has significantly downgraded its short-term outlook amid deteriorating survey indicators and tighter financing conditions, including more adverse credit supply effects. The Bank of England anticipates more modest near-term growth below 0.5%, while the OECD’s interim September 2023 outlook sees UK GDP growing by 0.3% in 2023 and 0.8% in 2024. By contrast, in the emerging economies, China’s industrial output growth accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in August (3.7% in July), while Russia’s economy is expected to continue to grow this year by around 2.0–2.5%, with quarterly growth likely to slow toward the end of the year. Brazilian GDP expanded by 0.9% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2023, compared to 1.9% in the first quarter.

Manufacturing has been contracting for the past 12 months, while the services sector has experienced a noticeable slowdown. In the world of manufacturing, emerging markets are expanding, while developed markets remain in the contraction zone (Exhibit 1). In the US, the industrial production index rose slightly in July to 102.9 (June 102). August’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for manufacturing declined to 48 after rising to 49 in July. It remains a bleaker picture in Europe: although the manufacturing PMI rose to 43.7 in the flash estimate for August, it remains squarely in contraction territory. It was a similar story in the UK: the UK manufacturing PMI posted 43.0 in August, down from 45.3 in July, the lowest level since May 2020. However, Brazil’s manufacturing PMI went the other way, edging into expansion after a ten-month sequence of contraction, with a rise from 47.8 in July to 50.1 in August. India’s manufacturing index reached 58.6 in August (57.7 in July)—attributable to new orders and production increases.

For services, the majority of countries reported worse PMI numbers than a month ago. In August, the US services PMI decreased again to reach 50.5, hovering just above the contraction zone, whereas the eurozone services PMI fell into contraction at 48.3—a 30-month low. It was a similar story for the UK, with the services PMI registering 49.5. In India, the services PMI dropped to 60.1 in August after surging to a 13-year high of 62.3 in July but remained well inside the expansion zone. Brazil’s services PMI edged up to 50.6 in August from 50.2 in July.

Unemployment rates remain stable across most surveyed economies, with slight decreases in Brazil and India and a small increase in the US, where the rate rose to 3.8%, slightly higher than July’s 3.5% (and comparable to the pre-COVID-19 level of 3.5% in January 2020). The UK’s unemployment rate for May–July 2023 increased by 0.5 percentage points during the quarter to 4.3%. In China the surveyed urban unemployment rate ticked down to 5.2% in August (5.3% in July).

Equity markets turned in a mixed performance in September; after a “red” August, some markets made gains, while others still struggled to grow. For US equities in August, year-to-date returns for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones were respectively down to 14.0% (19.5% in July) and up to 10.2% (8.3% in July). Across the Atlantic, European equities have been stable throughout 2023 with the Eurostoxx 600 index 3% below its highest value in 2023.

Data from World Trade Monitor indicates that world merchandise trade was down 0.6% in July 2023 compared to June, which also saw a 0.6% drop. July’s decrease was largely driven by a drop in trade for China. Across countries, exports rose for the US and Russia but fell for China, Brazil, and the eurozone, while imports increased for the US, Russia, and Brazil but fell for China. In China, contraction in cross-border trade slowed to –8.2% in August (–13.5% in July); exports growth declined by 8.8% in August (–14.3% in July), while imports growth was down 7.3% (–12.3% in July).

Data from the flash forecast (August 31) for the Container Throughput Index produced by the RWI - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) saw overall container trade decline across all regions, including Chinese ports, with a seasonally adjusted small decrease to 121.9 points in July versus June. Global supply chains are currently experiencing very low pressures, although pressures have been rising over recent months.

Encouragingly, the latest McKinsey Global Survey on the economy 1 “ Economic conditions outlook during turbulent times, September 2023 ,” McKinsey, September 29, 2023. finds respondents sharing a more positive than negative outlook for the second consecutive quarter. They are also more hopeful than not about their countries’ economies, though sentiments vary significantly by region. In Europe, where respondents are most concerned about the effects of inflation, expectations for the next six months have turned more negative, whereas respondents in North America offer increasingly brighter views (Exhibit 2). Looking ahead, respondents in Europe are much less likely now than in March and June to expect improvements in their countries’ economies and are currently the least optimistic group across regions. India and North America respondents have become more hopeful about the months ahead.

“ Economic conditions outlook during turbulent times, September 2023 ” is based on the responses of 997 participants to an online survey undertaken from August 31 to September 8, covering the full range of regions, industries, company sizes, functional specialties, and tenures.

Perceived top economic risks have shifted since June’s survey, as the threat of rising interest rates fades. Today, respondents—especially in Asia–Pacific—are keeping a close watch on economic activity in China. China’s slowing economic activity is the second-most-cited risk to the global economy—with 41% of respondents registering it as a concern—and also one of the top five most-cited risks to respondents’ home countries. Respondents in Greater China, meanwhile, now highlight uncertainty in the real estate sector most often as a threat to their economy. Additionally, geopolitical instability and inflation remain two of the most frequently cited risks both to the global economy and to respondents’ home countries.

Notable from the full report

In advanced economies, US growth was revised upward for 2023, in contrast to Europe. Manufacturing is under significant pressure, while services in Europe dip into contraction.

United States. The US Federal Reserve revised 2023 GDP growth projections to 2.1%, which is 1.1 percentage points higher than June’s projection. September’s FOMC meeting concluded with no new hikes of the current interest rate—this as the CPI showed promising figures throughout the month, while hirings slowed. The current rate remains in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

Eurozone. Overall, annual average real GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.4% in 2022 to 0.7% in 2023 before recovering to 1.0% in 2024 and to 1.5% in 2025. Compared with the European Central Bank’s June 2023 projections, the GDP growth outlook has been revised downward by 0.2 percentage points for 2023, 0.5 percentage points for 2024, and 0.1 percentage points for 2025 (exhibit). This represents a significant downgrade of the short-term outlook amid deteriorating survey indicators and tighter financing conditions, including more adverse credit supply effects.

United Kingdom. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a scaling back of the government’s net-zero commitments in order to support households, tabling some green targets and delaying others, such as pushing back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035 and allowing people more time to switch gas boilers to heat pumps, having previously announced new oil and gas exploration in the North Sea.

In emerging economies, growth in China has accelerated as trade contraction slows, and China is rolling out policies to stimulate the housing market. Russia hiked interest rates again, and six countries were invited to join BRICS. 1 Brazil, China, India, Russia, and South Africa.

China. Industrial output growth accelerated to 4.5% year-on-year in August (3.7% in July). Contraction in cross-border trade slowed to –8.2% in August (–13.5% in July). Exports growth declined by 8.8% in August (–14.3% in July), while imports growth was down 7.3% (–12.3% in July). China has rolled out a basket of policies to stimulate the housing market since late August, including expanding the definition of first-time buyers to those who have mortgage records but no local homeownership, cutting the minimum down payment ratio by ten percentage points on a nationwide basis, and lowering interest rates for both new and existing mortgages.

India. The spotlight shifted to India under its G-20 presidency, with leaders of the world’s most powerful nations gathering to discuss bilateral and sustainable commitments. Among the many issues discussed, an India-Middle-East-Europe economic corridor was announced, designed to enhance connectivity and economic integration across continents. Additionally, the Global Biofuels Alliance (GBA) was launched with the goal of driving development and deployment of biofuels across the world to sustain the transition to a zero-emissions environment.

Brazil. In August, Brazil recorded a balance of trade surplus of US $9.8 billion (US $8.9 billion in July), with exports totaling US $31.2 billion (US $28.9 billion in July) and imports at US $21.4 billion (US $20.0 billion in July). Exports to China, the US, and Argentina rose. Meanwhile, BRICS members announced an expansion of the group, inviting six new entrants. By January 1, 2024, Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will join existing member nations.

Russia. Strong domestic demand has led to capacity utilization being at an all-time high, with record-low unemployment at 3.0% in July. Consequently, market shortages have increased price pressures: the consumer price index rose by 5.2% year-on-year in August with core inflation at 4.0%. The median value of expected consumer inflation stabilized above double digits and exceeded 11% in July–August. Inflation is further fueled by continued depreciation of the ruble, which has lost 14% of its value since the beginning of the summer. In response to rising inflationary pressure and the ruble’s slide, the Bank of Russia raised its key rate to 12% in August, and then again to 13% in September. The tightening is expected to slow the pace of growth toward the year-end.

McKinsey’s Global Economics Intelligence (GEI) provides macroeconomic data and analysis of the world economy. Each monthly release includes an executive summary on global critical trends and risks , as well as focused insights on the latest national and regional developments. View the full report for September 2023 here . Detailed visualized data for the global economy, with focused reports on selected individual economies, are also provided as PDF downloads on McKinsey.com. The reports are available free to email subscribers and through the McKinsey Insights app . To add a name to our subscriber list, click here . GEI is a joint project of McKinsey’s Strategy & Corporate Finance Practice and the McKinsey Global Institute .

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The authors wish to thank Nick de Cent, as well as José Álvares, Fiorella Correa, Marta Dabrowska, Juhi Daga, Darien Ghersinich, Pragun Harjai, Ricardo Huapaya, Yifei Liu, Marianthi Marouli, Tomasz Mataczynski, Frances Matamoros, Erik Rong, Paula Trejos, and Sebastian Vargas, for their contributions to this article.

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Exploring the progress of global digital economy research: a bibliometric study via R-tool

Published: 17 November 2023

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Jun Yang 1 na1 &
Fenglong Tan ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0003-1138-839X 2 na1 nAff1

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Following the agricultural and industrial revolutions, the digital economy has become a significant global player. Despite its importance, the digital economy remains a relatively nascent field of research, with few studies offering a comprehensive overview and systematic quantitative analysis of the subject. Utilizing the R-tool bibliometric analysis tool, this paper presents a holistic depiction and a cross-sectional deconstruction coupled with an in-depth longitudinal analysis of global digital economy research. This approach supplements existing quantitative analyses of the digital economy's impact and qualitative research on specific aspects of the digital economy. The study reveals that the USA, China, and the UK are at the forefront of digital economy research. Innovation remains the enduring theme and core of the digital economy. The future direction of digital economy research is toward innovation, system building, and balancing economic and social impacts. Consequently, future research in the digital economy field could focus on analyzing the latest findings from the USA, UK, China, and other nations, as well as on establishing causal evidence. Moreover, digital economy research should also examine the complex interplay between the digital economy and innovation, while also scrutinizing the broader economic and social ramifications.

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Source : adapted from Chung and Cox ( 1990 )

Source : Brookes ( 1969 )

Source : Hirsch ( 2005 )

Source : authors’

Source : authors

A Bibliometric Analysis of Digital Entrepreneurship

A Bibliometric Perspective of Digital Economy Research in Russia

Two Decades (2000–2020) of Scientific Production About Digital Economy: A Bibliometric Analysis

Data availability.

We hereby state that the full record and citation references of all the research articles used in this study are available from the corresponding author upon reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by Postgraduate Scientific Research Innovation Project of Hunan Province under the project CX20230394. The authors are grateful to all the researchers for contributing to the existing body of scholarship, which inspired and enabled us to carry out this study.

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Jun Yang and Fenglong Tan are co-first authors and co-corresponding authors on this work.

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Exchange Rate Regimes: Pros and Cons
Exchange Rate Volatility and its Impact on International Trade
Currency Manipulation: Implications for Global Financial Stability
Optimal Currency Areas: Theory and Practice
The Role of Central Banks in Managing Exchange Rates
Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Effects on Domestic Prices and Inflation
Currency Crises and Financial Contagion
Foreign Exchange Market Efficiency: An Empirical Study
Exchange Rate Forecasting Models: Evaluation and Comparison

Global Financial Systems Research Paper Topics

Financial Globalization: Opportunities and Risks
Cross-Border Capital Flows: Implications for Emerging Economies
International Banking and Financial Intermediation
Financial Regulations and their Impact on Global Markets
Sovereign Debt Crisis: Causes, Contagion, and Resolution
Financial Innovations and their Effects on Global Financial Systems
Financial Stability and Systemic Risk in a Globalized Economy
International Capital Markets: Trends and Challenges
Foreign Direct Investment and its Economic Implications
Financial Inclusion and Economic Development in Emerging Markets

Economic Development and Globalization Research Paper Topics

Foreign Aid and its Role in Economic Development
Sustainable Development Goals and Global Economic Progress
The Role of Multinational Corporations in Economic Development
Human Capital Development and Economic Growth
Globalization and Income Inequality: Patterns and Policy Implications
Technology Transfer and Economic Development
The Role of Institutions in Promoting Economic Development
Infrastructure Investment and Economic Development
Gender Equality and Economic Empowerment in Developing Countries
Migration and its Impact on Economic Development

International Financial Crises Research Paper Topics

Causes and Consequences of the Global Financial Crisis
Financial Contagion: Spillover Effects of Financial Crises
International Financial Institutions and Crisis Management
The Role of Government Policies in Preventing and Managing Financial Crises
Currency Crises: Lessons from Historical Events
Banking Sector Stability and Crisis Resilience
Financial Risk Management in a Globalized Economy
Systemic Risk and Macroprudential Policies
Early Warning Systems for Financial Crises
Crisis Recovery and Post-Crisis Reforms: Comparative Analysis

Global Economic Governance Research Paper Topics

The Role of G7, G20, and International Monetary Fund in Global Economic Governance
International Economic Law and its Implications for Global Trade
Global Economic Governance and Sustainable Development
Regional Economic Integration and its Impact on Global Governance
International Taxation: Challenges and Policy Implications
Intellectual Property Rights Protection in Global Trade
Climate Change and Global Economic Governance
Labor Standards and Social Responsibility in International Trade
Digital Economy and its Implications for Global Governance
Cross-Border Data Flows: Privacy and Security Concerns

Economic Policies and Macroeconomic Management Research Paper Topics

Fiscal Policy and its Impact on Economic Growth
Monetary Policy Strategies in a Globalized Economy
Exchange Rate Policy and Macroeconomic Stability
Inflation Targeting: Theory and Practice
Public Debt Management in the Face of Global Economic Challenges
Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Stability
Unemployment Policies: Comparative Analysis and Best Practices
Economic Integration and Policy Coordination among Nations
Structural Reforms for Sustainable Economic Development
Income Distribution Policies in a Global Economy

Trade and Environment Research Paper Topics

Environmental Policies and International Trade: Conflict or Compatibility?
Carbon Pricing and its Economic Implications for Global Trade
Sustainable Development and International Trade
Trade and Deforestation: Challenges and Solutions
Green Technologies and their Role in Global Trade
Trade-Related Intellectual Property Rights and Environmental Conservation
Climate Change Adaptation Strategies and International Trade
Eco-labeling and Consumer Preferences in Global Markets
Circular Economy and its Effects on International Trade
Trade and Water Scarcity: Nexus and Policy Responses

International Labor Markets and Migration Research Paper Topics

Labor Mobility and Economic Integration: Implications for Global Labor Markets
International Trade and Labor Market Outcomes
Migration Policies and their Economic Impact
Remittances and Economic Development in Sending Countries
Brain Drain and Brain Gain: The Economic Effects of High-Skilled Migration
Labor Market Flexibility and Global Competitiveness
Gender Wage Gap in International Labor Markets
Skilled vs. Unskilled Immigration: Economic Consequences
Labor Market Regulations and Employment Dynamics in Global Economies
Migration and Social Integration: Challenges and Policy Approaches

Global Economic Challenges and Future Trends Research Paper Topics

Technological Innovations and their Effects on Global Economies
Global Economic Inequality: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Solutions
Aging Populations and the Economic Implications for Nations
Digital Disruption and the Transformation of Industries
Blockchain Technology and its Potential Applications in Global Business
Trade Wars and their Impact on International Trade
Economic Resilience and Crisis Preparedness in a Globalized World
Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Labor Markets and Productivity
Economic Implications of Pandemics and Health Crises
Economic Forecasting and Predictive Analytics in a Global Context

This list provides an extensive array of research topics in international economics. Students are encouraged to explore these categories and select a topic that aligns with their interests, research capabilities, and the availability of relevant data and resources.

International Economics Research Paper Writing Guide

Economics is a fascinating field that encompasses a wide range of topics, and one of the key areas within economics is international economics. As countries become increasingly interconnected, the study of international economics becomes vital in understanding the complexities of global markets, trade relations, and economic policies. For students pursuing a degree in economics, writing a research paper on international economics offers an opportunity to delve deeper into these intricacies and contribute to the field’s knowledge base.

This page serves as a valuable resource for students who are tasked with writing an international economics research paper. It provides a wealth of information, including a comprehensive list of international economics research paper topics, expert advice on selecting a suitable topic, and guidance on the research and writing process. Furthermore, students can take advantage of the custom writing services offered by iResearchNet to order a tailored economics research paper that meets their unique requirements.

Whether you are interested in exploring international trade, exchange rates, economic policies, or global financial systems, this page will assist you in finding an engaging and relevant research topic. Through careful examination and analysis of these topics, students can contribute to the understanding of international economics and its implications on global economic development.

Prepare to embark on a rewarding journey of research and exploration as we delve into the realm of international economics research paper topics. Discover the intriguing dynamics of the global economy and equip yourself with the knowledge and skills to make a significant contribution in this ever-evolving field.

Choosing International Economics Research Paper Topics

Choosing a compelling and relevant research paper topic in the field of international economics is a crucial step towards producing a high-quality and impactful paper. With the multitude of available topics, it can be challenging to narrow down your focus and select a topic that is both engaging and manageable. To help you navigate this process, we offer the following expert advice on choosing international economics research paper topics:

Identify your Interests : Start by reflecting on your personal interests within the field of international economics. Consider topics that resonate with you and align with your career goals. Engaging with a topic you are passionate about will not only make the research process more enjoyable but also enhance the quality of your work.
Stay Updated with Current Events : Keep abreast of current global economic issues and trends. Read reputable news sources, academic journals, and policy reports to identify emerging topics or areas of debate in international economics. Analyzing and addressing these contemporary issues will add relevance and significance to your research.
Explore Controversial Topics : Consider researching topics that have varying viewpoints or controversial aspects. These topics often spark interesting discussions and allow you to critically analyze different perspectives. However, ensure that you approach controversial topics with objectivity and rigor, presenting a balanced view in your research.
Consult with Professors or Experts : Seek guidance from your professors or experts in the field of international economics. They can provide valuable insights, suggest research areas, or share their expertise on specific topics. Their input can help you refine your research question and provide direction for your study.
Review Existing Literature : Conduct a thorough review of existing literature in international economics. Identify gaps or areas where further research is needed. Building upon existing knowledge or exploring new dimensions of a topic can contribute to the advancement of the field and make your research more impactful.
Consider Data Availability : Assess the availability of relevant data for your chosen topic. Data plays a crucial role in empirical research, and access to reliable and comprehensive data sets will strengthen the empirical analysis in your paper. Ensure that you have access to suitable data sources before finalizing your research topic.
Balance Breadth and Depth : Strive to strike a balance between the breadth and depth of your research topic. While a broad topic can provide a comprehensive overview, a narrow focus allows for a more in-depth analysis. Consider the scope of your research project, the available resources, and the time constraints when selecting the level of breadth or depth for your topic.
Collaborate and Discuss : Engage in discussions with your peers, classmates, or fellow researchers. Brainstorming and exchanging ideas can stimulate new perspectives and inspire unique research topics. Collaborative efforts can also lead to joint research projects, enabling you to explore complex topics or conduct cross-country studies.
Consider Policy Relevance : Evaluate the policy relevance of your chosen topic. International economics research often addresses real-world economic issues and informs policy decisions. Selecting a topic with policy implications can make your research more impactful and applicable in the context of economic development and global governance.
Seek Feedback : Once you have narrowed down your research topic, seek feedback from your professors, peers, or research advisors. Their insights can help you refine your research question, provide additional suggestions, or highlight potential challenges in your chosen topic.

By following these expert tips, you can select a compelling and relevant research topic in international economics that aligns with your interests, contributes to the field, and enables you to produce a high-quality research paper. Remember to approach your chosen topic with curiosity, rigor, and a commitment to advancing knowledge in the field of international economics.

How to Write an International Economics Research Paper

Writing a research paper in the field of international economics requires careful planning, rigorous analysis, and effective communication of your findings. To help you navigate the process, we provide a step-by-step guide on how to write an international economics research paper:

Understand the Assignment : Familiarize yourself with the assignment guidelines provided by your instructor. Clarify the research question, required format, citation style, and any specific requirements or expectations for your paper.
Conduct Preliminary Research : Begin by conducting preliminary research on your chosen topic. Review relevant academic literature, empirical studies, and policy reports to gain a comprehensive understanding of the topic and identify key research gaps or areas for further investigation.
Develop a Clear Research Question : Formulate a clear and concise research question that defines the scope of your study. Ensure that your research question is specific, measurable, and aligned with the objectives of your research.
Create an Outline : Develop an outline that organizes your paper and outlines the structure of your research. A typical research paper structure includes an introduction, literature review, research methodology, data analysis, findings, discussion, and conclusion.
Conduct In-Depth Literature Review : Conduct a comprehensive literature review to identify the existing knowledge and research on your topic. Analyze and synthesize the findings from previous studies, highlighting the key theories, models, and empirical evidence that are relevant to your research question.
Choose a Suitable Research Methodology : Select an appropriate research methodology that aligns with your research question and data availability. Common research methodologies in international economics include quantitative analysis, econometric modeling, case studies, or qualitative approaches. Justify your chosen methodology and explain how it will address your research question.
Gather and Analyze Data : Collect relevant data to support your research findings. Ensure that your data collection methods are appropriate and reliable. Conduct rigorous data analysis using appropriate statistical techniques or qualitative methods, depending on the nature of your research.
Interpret and Present Findings : Interpret your research findings and present them in a clear and organized manner. Use tables, charts, or graphs to visually represent your data. Provide a detailed analysis and explanation of your findings, relating them back to your research question and existing literature.
Engage in Critical Discussion : Engage in a critical discussion of your findings by analyzing their implications, limitations, and significance. Discuss any discrepancies or unexpected results and provide possible explanations. Compare your findings with previous research and highlight their contributions to the field of international economics.
Write a Coherent Conclusion : Summarize your research findings and main arguments in a concise and coherent conclusion. Restate your research question and objectives, and discuss the implications of your findings. Suggest avenues for future research and areas where further investigation is needed.
Revise and Edit : Proofread your research paper carefully to ensure clarity, coherence, and proper grammar. Check for consistency in formatting, citations, and references. Revise and edit your paper multiple times to improve its overall quality and coherence.
Seek Feedback : Share your research paper with peers, professors, or research advisors to gather feedback and suggestions for improvement. Incorporate constructive feedback into your paper to strengthen your arguments and enhance its overall quality.

By following these steps, you can effectively plan, conduct, and present your research in the field of international economics. Remember to maintain a rigorous and objective approach throughout your research process and communicate your findings in a clear and concise manner. Good luck with your international economics research paper!

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7 economic trends to watch in 2024

Every year has its economic challenges — some old, some new. But in an election year — where control over Congress and the White House are at stake — policies dealing with inflation, labor disruptions, the rise of artificial intelligence, and other economic issues take on added significance. Below, seven experts affiliated with the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research ( SIEPR ) offer their research-based insights into what’s in store for the U.S. economy in the year ahead.

“These economic policy questions are right in our wheelhouse at SIEPR, and we’re very fortunate to have more than 120 faculty members tackling pressing economic issues and generating research that leads to better policies. The fact that we are in an election year makes their work even more important as we strive to get rigorous, nonpartisan research and analysis into the hands of policymakers, candidates, business leaders and voters.”

— Mark Duggan, The Trione Director of SIEPR and The Wayne and Jodi Cooperman Professor of Economics

The consumer disconnect in an election year

Neale Mahoney , George P. Shultz Fellow at SIEPR and Professor of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences:

The U.S. economy is strong by all objective measures, with low unemployment, robust GDP growth, and easing inflation. Yet consumer sentiment is decidedly weak, with measures of the economic indicator at levels last seen during the global financial crisis. Given the strong correlation between consumer sentiment and election outcomes, it’s especially important to understand why there’s a disconnect ahead of this November’s vote.

Ryan Cummings , a visiting PhD student at Stanford, and I recently dived into the data and documented two new findings. First, sentiment isn’t as bad as the numbers suggest due to partisan skew. While both Democrats and Republicans rate the economy more strongly when their party controls the White House, Republicans cheer louder and boo harder, in effect, drowning out Democratic voices and artificially depressing consumer sentiment.

Second, consumer sentiment is being dragged down by prior years’ inflation . While prices rose only 3.2 percent this year, they increased by a cumulative 18.6 percent over the last 3 years, and these prior price increases are still weighing negatively on consumers. However, we also found that the downward drag from inflation has a half-life of about a year. This means that, if inflation continues to ease over the next 12 months, sentiment should improve as the post-pandemic inflation surge recedes.

These are challenging times for forecasting. The rise of social media as a prominent information source — with its tendency to amplify bad news — may be fraying the link between economic fundamentals and consumer sentiment. The partisan factors we document may intensify as the November election approaches. How consumer sentiment will trend, and what we should be making of these data in the current environment, are questions that will only be fully answered in the course of time.

COVID-19’s lingering labor effects

Gopi Shah Goda , SIEPR Senior Fellow and Professor (by courtesy) of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences:

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted many sectors of the economy, including labor markets. My research with Evan Soltas estimates that excess COVID-19-related absences from work through mid-2022 resulted in approximately 500,000 fewer people participating in the labor force. Other work has shown that more working-age adults are reporting serious difficulty remembering, concentrating or making decisions, and the increases are higher among women and non-college graduates. In addition, the share of workers who are not employed and not looking for work due to disability or illness is higher than its pre-pandemic trend.

COVID has clearly had harmful effects on the U.S. workforce overall, but there’s some good news heading into 2024. Between January and October of 2023, excess COVID-19-related absences from work were approximately 15 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels. While still elevated, this represents a sharp reduction from excess absences in March 2020-December 2022, which were 61 percent higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Going forward, the lower rate of excess absences in 2023 may suggest that the recent increase in disability rates could slow down if the two are causally related. However, the growing share of the population reporting cognitive difficulties — likely from a COVID-19 infection — suggest that programs and policies may be needed to support workers still struggling with pandemic-related illnesses.

Congress' fiscal cliff problem

John Cochrane , SIEPR Senior Fellow and the Rose-Marie and Jack Anderson Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution:

When you kick the can long enough, you run out of road. Our government’s inability to fix its finances means we’re pretty close to that point.

The U.S. has as much federal debt now as it did at the end of WWII. The Congressional Budget Office projects debt will grow exponentially. The federal deficit is 5.8 percent of GDP, though the economy is humming. The CBO projects 3 percent of GDP primary deficits — before interest payments — forever.

The problem is not this year or next. The government has made pension and health care promises that it cannot pay for. Trillion-dollar spending on industrial policies, subsidies, transfers, and bailouts don’t help. When the next recession, crisis, war or pandemic hits, the U.S. may simply be unable to borrow.

Higher tax rates are not the answer. There aren’t enough “rich” or “corporations” to soak for this much money. We could finance our European-style benefits with European middle-income taxes, but we would get stagnant European incomes in the bargain.

Tax revenue equals tax rate times income. Higher tax rates lead to lower long-run income, blunting revenue. The best way out is more long-term income growth.

Our mantra should be “reform” and “incentives,” not “cuts” and “austerity.” Fundamental tax reform, such as the introduction of a consumption tax, can raise substantial revenue with less economic damage. Change at the edges, such as the debate over extending the 2017 cuts, won’t address the immense problem. Reformed social program incentives can save money and help people more. Regulatory reform can speed growth. Smart immigration can bring in more taxpayers.

Year of the WFH pancake

Nicholas Bloom , SIEPR Senior Fellow and the William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, School of Humanities and Sciences:

It’s the $64,000 workplace question: Will workers continue to be allowed to work from home (WFH)? I predict the rates of WFH will, as the British say, be “flat as a pancake” this year and into 2025 before picking up again in 2026.

I’ve previously likened the WFH revolution to the Nike swoosh. From 2020 to the end of 2022, levels of WFH dropped as the pandemic-induced surge waned. In 2023 we saw rates stabilize as attempts by employers to bring workers back into the office largely failed.

But WFH rates will start to slowly climb again. This will be driven by ever-improving technologies for remote working. We’ll see innovations around, for example, audio and visual, apps, holograms, and augmented reality. Looking back over my life, we have seen working from home go from paper-based in the 1970s and 1980s, to supported by PCs in the 1990s, with the internet in the 2000s and then cloud computing and video calls in the 2010s.

The recent explosion in WFH has accelerated this rate of technological progress. Every hardware and software firm I talk to is targeting this massive new market of WFH employees and firms. What the future will bring is not clear, but it clearly will be better and more efficient than 2023 tech.

My message for 2024: Underneath WFH’s “pancake” year is a massive revolution. WFH is here to stay and looking to a rapidly growing future.

The need for Treasury market reforms

Darrell Duffie , SIEPR Senior Fellow and the Adams Distinguished Professor of Management and Professor of Finance, Stanford Graduate School of Business:

U.S. Treasury securities are the world’s safe-haven asset — not only because of their low default risk but also because of the depth and liquidity of the market in which they are traded. In March 2020, that safe-haven role was tested when COVID unleashed a dash for cash caused by severe selling of Treasuries. The dealers who handle essentially all investor trading of Treasuries could not adequately handle the surge of demands. Catastrophe was averted only when the Federal Reserve took unprecedented steps to restore liquidity in the market.

According to a recent Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis that I co-authored, the crisis exposed structural weaknesses in the U.S. Treasury market that, if unaddressed, threaten its ability to remain a safe haven for global investors. The capacity of dealers to temporarily warehouse the flood of investor sales while they negotiate trades with buyers is critical. And yet, the total amount of Treasuries outstanding is growing rapidly relative to the intermediation capacity of dealers because of large and persistent U.S. fiscal deficits and the limited flexibility of dealer balance sheets.

The resilience of the Treasury market should not be called into question just when its safe-haven role becomes critical. Significant structural improvements to the Treasury market are needed in 2024 and beyond. Policy options include broadening central clearing of Treasuries and all-to-all trade; boosting the intermediation capacity of dealers with real-time post-trade transaction reporting; improving capital regulations so they do not lower the overall capital buffers of globally systemic banks; and backstopping the Treasury market liquidity with transparent central-bank purchase programs.

The beginning of the end for non-competes

Mark Lemley , SIEPR Senior Fellow; the William H. Neukom Professor of Law, Stanford Law School; Director, Stanford Program in Law, Science & Technology :

The reinvigoration of antitrust enforcement will continue in 2024. The Federal Trade Commission in particular will continue to challenge mergers that it deems anticompetitive. It will also take a number of steps to open up the labor markets: It will ban or significantly restrict non-compete agreements that prevent workers from moving to competitors. It will challenge other restrictive employee agreements, from no-poach deals and arbitration secrecy clauses to overbroad nondisclosure agreements and "stay or pay" clauses.

These challenges will be met by skeptical courts trained in 40 years of Chicago School orthodoxy on the primacy of free markets. Entrenched companies that don’t like the idea of facing competition rather than agreeing to avoid it will howl. The November general election will likely determine the extent to which the pace of FTC enforcement continues beyond 2024. And if the FTC suffers setbacks in court, proponents of stricter enforcement may need to look to Congress to act.

For California, tough choices

Preeti Hehmeyer , Managing Director of California Policy Research Initiative (CAPRI) at SIEPR:

The coming year will be eventful for Californians, to say the least. Looking to the general election in November, many observers believe that the Golden State will be one of the most important battlegrounds for Congressional control. California also needs to climb out of its $31 billion budget deficit while dealing with the ongoing challenges of affordable housing, homelessness, extreme weather, and rising electricity costs. Politicians make the decisions, but CAPRI can help the state better understand the roots of its problems and choices going forward.

Facebook went away. Political divides didn't budge.

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Global economic growth improves but ‘downsides’ lurk

Porters work at a metal market in Narayana in New Delhi, India.

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The global economic picture has improved since January, but vulnerabilities remain, the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects report published on Thursday has revealed.

The world economy is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024, up from 2.4 per cent projected at the start of the year. Growth will reach 2.8 per cent in 2025, representing a slight increase.

These changes are mainly due to better-than-expected performance in some large developed and emerging countries, notably Brazil, India, Russia and the United States.

Inflation down, wages up

Inflation is also down from the 2023 peak, said Shantanu Mukherjee of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), presenting the report to journalists in New York.

“In developed countries, tight labour markets are seeing wage increases for some parts of the population and also drawing people into the labor force, which is important,” he added.

However, the outlook is only cautiously optimistic in the face of higher-for-longer interest rates, debt sustainability risks and continuing geopolitical tensions.

Islands at risk

Ever-worsening climate shocks are also a challenge, threatening decades of development gains, especially for the world’s Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS).

Even though prospects for SIDS are being revised upwards to about 3.3 per cent each year, Mr. Mukherjee said this is still below the pre-pandemic average, meaning that “lost ground is still not being made up.”

In the case of Africa and LDCs in general, prospects are revised downward to about 3.3 per cent growth in 2024.

Concern for the continent

“This is particularly worrying because Africa is home to about 430 million living in extreme poverty and close to 40 per cent share of the global undernourished population,” he explained. Furthermore, two-thirds of the high inflation countries listed in the report are on the continent.

“At the same time, cause for concern is that African governments’ room to maneuver is also shrinking,” he continued.

“In 2024, over a quarter of public revenues on average in this continent went towards interest payments. That's again about 10 percentage points more than the average over the years immediately preceding the pandemic.”

For developing countries, on average, the debt situation is not as dire, but he was concerned that investment growth continues to fall.

These “downsides” are further compounded by risks such as inflation, which is both a symptom of the underlying fragility and a concern on its own.

Break the ‘resource curse’

The report also contains a special section on critical minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt and copper, that are essential for the transition to clean energy.

Countries that possess these resources will, however, need smart policies, as well as effective implementation capacities to reap the benefits.

Mineral-sector driven grown has in the past often been associated with environmental damage, stunted development of other sectors, poverty, conflict and other adverse outcomes collectively known as the “resource curse”.

“It is imperative for developing countries to design and implement well-targeted and timely economic, social, and environmental policies to optimize the benefits of their critical minerals endowments and avoid another cycle of resource curse,” the report said.

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Explore economic issues facing the world economy, as well as regions and countries, including the pandemic, prospects for growth, inflation, energy and the environment, inequality, labor issues, emerging markets, and the impact of new technologies, with research by the world's leading experts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
World Economic Outlook
A Survey by the IMF staff usually published twice a year. It presents IMF staff economists' analyses of global economic developments during the near and medium term. Chapters give an overview as well as more detailed analysis of the world economy; consider issues affecting industrial countries, developing countries, and economies in transition to market; and address topics of pressing current ...
World Economic Outlook Update
Global growth is projected to stay at 3.1 percent in 2024 and rise to 3.2 percent in 2025. Elevated central bank rates to fight inflation and a withdrawal of fiscal support amid high debt weigh on economic activity. Inflation is falling faster than expected in most regions, amid unwinding supply-side issues and restrictive monetary policy. Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8 ...
Global Economic Prospects: The Global Economy: on Track for Strong but
A year and a half since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global economy is poised to stage its most robust post-recession recovery in 80 years in 2021. But the rebound is expected to be uneven across countries, as major economies look set to register strong growth even as many developing economies lag.
Topics
All NBER research is categorized into topic areas that collectively span the field of economics. Featured Topics. ... Exchange Rate Volatility and Global Food Supply Chains. ... National Bureau of Economic Research. Contact Us 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 617-868-3900
World Bank Global Economic Prospects
The World Bank Global Economic Prospects Report shows that the global economy is expected to expand 5.6% in 2021, the fastest post-recession pace in 80 years. ... Global data and statistics, research and publications, and topics in poverty and development. WORK WITH US. Jobs, procurement, training, and events. News;
Global Economy Overview: Development news, research, data
We face big challenges to help the world's poorest people and ensure that everyone sees benefits from economic growth. Data and research help us understand these challenges and set priorities, share knowledge of what works, and measure progress. ... Topics; Global Economy ; The World Bank In Global Economy. Enter Short Description in Overview ...
Global Economy 2021: Prospects and Challenges
In January, we projected 2021 global growth at 5.5 percent, but prospects of a stronger recovery are emerging - because of additional fiscal stimulus, especially in the U.S., and the prospects of broader vaccination. We will update our global forecasts in the new World Economic Outlook coming out in early April.
Global Economic Outlook
The Conference Board's global real GDP forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were unchanged in April. We continue to project that the Global Economy will grow by 3% this year and by 3.1% in 2025. Our growth forecast for the Mature Economies ticked up 0.1 to 1.5% for this year, while 2025 was unchanged at 1.6%.
Global Economy & Development
Global Economy & Development. Explore our research to gain a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics shaping the global economy and development landscape. Our experts unpack complex ...
5 major risks confronting the global economy in 2024
There are at least five major risks that could threaten the global economy if they materialize: 1. Rising geopolitical tensions. Geopolitical tensions have become the single most important risk ...
Global economy
Research expert covering Nordics and global data for society, economy, and politics Published by Einar H. Dyvik , Jan 17, 2024 Subscribe
Technology and the Global Economy
Technology and the Global Economy. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel S. Kortum. Working Paper 32062. DOI 10.3386/w32062. Issue Date January 2024. Interpreting individual heterogeneity in terms of probability theory has proved powerful in connecting behaviour at the individual and aggregate levels. Returning to Ricardo's focus on comparative efficiency as ...
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2024
Global economic growth is projected to slow from an estimated 2.7 per cent in 2023 to 2.4 per cent in 2024, trending below the pre-pandemic growth rate of 3.0 per cent, according to the United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2024. This latest forecast comes on the heels of global economic performance exceeding expectations in 2023. However, last year's stronger-than ...
Global Economy & Trade
China's Approach to Foreign Policy Gets Largely Negative Reviews in 24-Country Survey. A median of 76% of adults in the 24 countries surveyed say China does not take into account the interests of other countries in its foreign policy. Majorities in most countries also say China does not contribute to global peace and stability.
Global Economics Intelligence executive summary, September 2023
Get the latest global economy and GDP growth updates, ... Leibniz Institute for Economic Research and Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics (ISL) saw overall container trade decline across all regions, including Chinese ports, with a seasonally adjusted small decrease to 121.9 points in July versus June. Global supply chains are ...
Global Economy
Global | Convergence in human capital and income. Based on the endogenous growth model of Lucas (1988 and 1990), in this Working Paper we propose a method to measure the total contribution of human capital to the variance of GDP per capita in a large sample of countries from 1960 to 2015. Global. Global Economy. May 3, 2024.
Global Economy Remains Resilient Despite Uneven Growth ...
April 16, 2024. Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose. The journey has been eventful, starting with supply-chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic, an energy and food crisis triggered by Russia's war on Ukraine, a ...
Exploring the progress of global digital economy research: a ...
Following the agricultural and industrial revolutions, the digital economy has become a significant global player. Despite its importance, the digital economy remains a relatively nascent field of research, with few studies offering a comprehensive overview and systematic quantitative analysis of the subject. Utilizing the R-tool bibliometric analysis tool, this paper presents a holistic ...
11 Global Debates
11 Global Debates. October 5, 2016. 4 min read. In 2006, the Brookings Institution determined that a standalone research program was needed to have the depth and breadth to explore the most ...
International Economics Research Paper Topics
100 International Economics Research Paper Topics. To assist students in their quest to find compelling research paper topics in the field of international economics, we have curated a comprehensive list of diverse and engaging topics. These topics cover various aspects of international economics, providing students with a wide range of options ...
IMF's Gita Gopinath: Geopolitics and its impact on global trade and the
Speaking at an event hosted by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research (SIEPR) in collaboration with the Stanford King Center on Global Development and the Hoover Institution, Gopinath talked about the outlook for the global economy and the U.S. dollar as trade among the world's largest countries splinters along political lines.
7 economic trends to watch in 2024
January 5, 2024. Every year has its economic challenges — some old, some new. But in an election year — where control over Congress and the White House are at stake — policies dealing with inflation, labor disruptions, the rise of artificial intelligence, and other economic issues take on added significance. Below, seven experts ...
International Trade and Its Impact on the Global Economy
Key words: International trade, economic growth, trade openness, global economy. Discover the world's research. 25+ million members; 160+ million publication pages; 2.3+ billion citations;
Global economic growth improves but 'downsides' lurk
The global economic picture has improved since January, but vulnerabilities remain, the mid-year update of the World Economic Situation and Prospects report published on Thursday has revealed. The world economy is forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024, up from 2.4 per cent projected at the start ...
Support for Joe Biden's economic policies wanes amid inflation fears
The stories that matter on money and politics in the race for the White House Joe Biden's re-election prospects are being dogged by persistent fears over inflation, with 80 per cent of voters ...