essay on foreign policy of pakistan

The Foreign policy of Pakistan: issues, challenges, and solutions

• Naseem khan
• January 28, 2022
• CSS , CSS Solved Pakistan Affairs , Current Affairs , Featured , Opinions , Pakistan's Domestic Affairs , Pakistani Society , PMS
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The foreign policy of Pakistan: issues, challenges, and solutions | Best for CSS, PMS Current Affairs, Pakistan Affairs, and Essay Papers

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Introduction

With various issues: political instability, less coordination among state institutions, and poor economy, it can be contesting for Pakistan to manage its internal and external challenges, like the Kashmir problem, the US-India nexus, the arm-race in South Asia and establishing peace in Afghanistan. However, to make itself influential based on its foreign policy in the competitive world, Pakistan has to maintain good relations with its neighbours, confidence in all super-powers, and curb non-state actors.

What is meant by the foreign policy?

The foreign policy of Pakistan

Fundamental principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy

• To protect its sovereignty
• To maintain good relations with the Muslim world
• To observe the principle of non-interference
• To implement the UN Charter
• To support self-determination

Current scenario of Pakistan foreign policy

Challenges to Pakistan’s foreign policy

• Existing political instability
• Increasing Balochistan conundrum
• Prevailing terrorism and sectarianism
• Non-solving Kashmir problem
• Growing nexus of US-India
• Hanging sword of FATF
• Defaming the international Image of Pakistan
• Establishing peace in Afghanistan

Issues in Pakistan foreign policy

• The minimum coordination among state institutions
• The issue of incompetent policymakers
• The presence of inept leadership
• The burden of geographical location
• The enigma of religious fundamentalism

Way forward

• To maintain good relations with all neighbours
• To initiate a balanced approach toward the Middle East countries
• To give equal weightage to all superpowers
• To refrain from interference in internal affairs of other countries
• To promote political stability
• To boost the economic condition
• To curb non-state actors

Critical analysis

Conclusion 

Answer to the Question

Nothing in this globalized world for a modern country is as important as sound foreign relations to secure its geographical, economic, and ideological interests. Living in isolation is no more in the interests of a country. Therefore, every developed or developing country has to formulate a peaceful and objective-oriented foreign policy keeping in view its national interests. Being a developing country, Pakistan enjoys its own effective and productive foreign policy based on its security and economic motives. It entertains cordial relations with all countries of the world. However, Pakistan faces several challenges regarding its foreign relations regarding the Kashmir issue, Indian aggressiveness, war-torn Afghanistan, the Middle East crisis, and a few more. These hurdles seem impossible to be managed by Pakistan in the presence of multiple issues such as fragile policies, a weak economy, a vulnerable geographical location, and the presence of non-state actors. In short, if Pakistan intends to formulate a successful foreign policy and manage its internal and external impediments, it has to eradicate all issues related to its economic, political, and ideological interests.

“Domestic policy can only defeat us; foreign policy can kill us.”  John F. Kennedy

Foreign policy is the total of objectives, principles, and interests that a state keeps in view establishing its peaceful relations with other countries. Professor Joseph Frankel has aptly said, “Foreign policy consists of decisions and actions that involve relations between one state and others to some appreciable extent.” Moreover, it reflects domestic policies by which a country extends its relations to other sovereign nations. That is why the foreign policy of one state has profound effects on the neighbouring countries. Hence, Pakistan should make itself a stable country economically and politically to establish sound interactions with other countries.  

Having hostile neighbours on both eastern and western sides, Pakistan’s foreign policy is mainly revolved around its key concerns, such as preserving its sovereignty, protecting its territorial integrity, and promoting the well-being of its people through economic development. Besides, Pakistan believes in maintaining good relations with all other countries on the basis of equality. Moreover, Pakistan has been the focal point of international politics owing to its geographical location. Being a gateway connecting many countries, Pakistan’s foreign policy can determine the fate of the region and affect international stability. Hence, Pakistan should formulate a peaceful foreign policy to secure its national interests in the best possible way.

“Success in foreign policy, as in carpentry, requires the right tool for the job.” Richard N. Haass

Fundamental principles of Pakistan’s foreign policy 

Being a self-reliant state, the foreign policy of Pakistan is based on some essential principles. In the first place, Pakistan’s foreign policy at all costs ensures the sovereignty and independence of the country. Pakistan is the outcome of the great sacrifices of millions of Muslims, and that is why freedom of the country has become an integral part of its foreign policy. Second, Pakistan always seeks to maintain strong relations with all Muslim countries. For this very purpose, Pakistan has joined many organizations of Muslim countries to enhance its relationship with them. Third, Pakistan’s foreign policy is based on the principle of non-interference; thus, it never meddles in the internal affairs of other countries unless they invite it. Fourth, Pakistan does not ignore the UN Charter while formulating its foreign policy. It always supports all the moves of the UN in true essence. Lastly, Pakistan’s foreign policy is based on the principle of self-determination. Hence, it fights orally for the independence of Kashmir and Palestine based on this very principle.   

Various internal and external challenges surround the foreign policy of Pakistan. Political instability in the country implements Pakistan’s foreign policy problematic for political stability is the hallmark of vibrant and efficient foreign policy. Moreover, the Balochistan issue is another internal hurdle in the way of Pakistan’s foreign policy. It limits the thinking capacity of policymakers because their minds stick to internal affairs only. Moreover, terrorism, extremism and sectarianism in the country have further jeopardized Pakistan’s foreign policy. Besides internal ones, external challenges are more dangerous as they directly influence Pakistan’s foreign policy development. The most crucial challenge among them is the Kashmir problem, for this very issue has been complicating the foreign relations of Pakistan and India since their independence. No one is ready to compromise on their interests related to Kashmir because it is the best water source for both of them. Furthermore, the US-India nexus and culture of the arms race in South Asia are giving a tough time to Pakistan’s foreign policy. Additionally, the sword of FATF, along with a bad image of Pakistan, are creating more impediments in the way of Pakistan’s foreign policy. Lastly, establishing peace in Afghanistan is the most exciting challenge for the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan. Hence, all these internal and external challenges contain the smooth progress of Pakistan’s foreign policy.

“How can I play baseball when I’m worried about foreign policy.” Charles M. Schulz

Issues in the foreign policy of Pakistan 

The foreign policy of Pakistan cannot protect the national interests of Pakistan properly in the presence of various issues. First, less or no coordination among the state institutions and intelligence agencies leaves Pakistan’s foreign policy at the mercy of the Foreign Ministry only. Thus, there remain many loopholes while formulating it. Second, incompetent policymakers and inept leadership frame opportunistic foreign policies that are not long-lasting; therefore, these policies are insufficient to attain the country’s national interests. Third, the geographical location of Pakistan makes it more complicated for the Foreign Ministry of Pakistan to analyze satisfactory regional and global changing interests. Lastly, religious fundamentalists inside the country influence Pakistan’s foreign policy for their vicious interests. In short, all these issues play a significant role in making Pakistan’s foreign policy directionless and problematic.  

Way forward 

Pakistan must take concrete measures to make its foreign policy vibrant and effective. In the first place, Pakistan should maintain better relations with all its neighbouring countries, especially India and Afghanistan. For this reason, Pakistan must at all costs resolve all its problems with these countries like the issue of Kashmir. Next to it, Pakistan has to adopt a balanced approach toward all Middle East countries. Therefore, it must engage itself with all these countries equally. Besides, Pakistan must take all superpowers of the world, especially the US, China, and Russia. All of them are equally important for preserving the national interests of Pakistan. Apart from it, Pakistan should not meddle in the internal affairs of other countries and always stick to the UN Charter.

Additionally, Pakistan has to improve its political stability to give extra focus to internal affairs. Furthermore, moving ahead, Pakistan must improve its economic condition to pursue good relations with other countries equally. Lastly, Pakistan must take stringent actions against all non-state actors roaming inside the country so that they cannot degrade the international image of Pakistan. In this way, Pakistan can make itself influential with the help of a vibrant and well-organized foreign policy in this competitive world.

“Here is my first principle of foreign policy: good governance at home.” William E. Gladstone

The foreign policy works as a building block for a country to initiate good relations with other countries. Without a durable and effective foreign policy, a country can’t engage itself successfully with other countries. Every country must change its foreign policy with time as there is no permanent friends or foe in the international arena. That is why Pakistan should maintain exemplary relations with other countries based on an objective-oriented foreign policy. In this way, Pakistan can secure its national interest abroad effectively.

To conclude, the foreign policy of Pakistan is surrounded by multiple challenges. These challenges make it difficult for Pakistan’s foreign policy to preserve the country’s national interest. That is why Pakistan is at loggerheads with many nations due to its short-sighted foreign policy. These hurdles cannot be managed fruitfully by Pakistan unless the existing issues related to foreign policy are resolved. Only then Pakistan can live peacefully with other nations based on its durable foreign policy, and it can protect its national interest in the best possible way.

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There were other security imperatives during this time period, such as army organization, weapon purchases, the retention of British officers, and officers sent to the UK and other Commonwealth states for training.

  Alignment with the West 1953-62

From 1953 to 1962, Pakistan aligned itself with the West, signed a number of treaties with the West, and received economic and military aid in return—entangled in the Cold War.

An acute sense of unease and economic difficulties were the obvious driving forces behind this alignment.

Depleting gold reserves and cotton price crisis of the 1950s-Wheat shortage (the US came with wheat as a gift). It was clear that the UN and Common Wealth ( CW ) nations would not be able to help with the Kashmir issue because of the country’s isolation.

Pakistan’s foreign policy was compromised as a result of this alliance. Prospects of relation with the Soviet Union suffered- resorted to two-pronged strategy against Pakistan as it extended support to India and supported Afghanistan claim.

In addition, Pakistan was kicked out of the Non-Aligned Movement ( NAM ) in 1961, and China openly criticized its entry into the organization. In the Kashmir dispute, the United States did not side with Pakistan.

Re-examined alignment policy 1962-71

The alignment policy was re-examined during the transitional period from 1962 to 1971. Rethinking was sparked by two major developments: the U2 plane incident and the Kennedy administration’s closeness to India (a counterweight to China) offered a nuclear umbrella but did not ask to make any security commitment.

The Soviet Union approached India and Pakistan with a moderate stance. Agreements for economic and technical cooperation and oil exploration were made between Pakistan and the USSR.

During their 1965 trip to Moscow, Bhutto and Ayyub met with Soviet officials. The Soviet Union agreed to help Pakistan with 30 development projects over the next five years 1965-70. The Soviet Union arranged the Tashkent agreement of 1966.

The movement to an independent and pluralistic perspective on foreign policy (FP) occurred during this period of 1962–1971, when Pakistan had bilateral and multilateral relations with multiple states, did not withdraw from US-sponsored pacts, and didn’t endorse the Asian collective security system proposed by the Soviet Union (SU).

Conflicting national aspirations, mutual mistrust, and three wars — a limited conflict in Runn of Kutch in 1965 and two full-scale conflicts in 1965 and 1971 — characterize Pakistan’s relationship with India. Besides, there were six unsuccessful rounds of Kashmir talks: 1962-63.

Non-Alignment and bilateral-ism 1972-79

Between 1972 and 1979, bilateralism and non-alignment emerged, with the realization that no permanent alignment but mutual interest fosters relations, without alienating one for the sake of another.

Withdrawing from SEATO and CENTO in 1972, Pakistan has since developed a diverse network of trade, economic, and diplomatic ties with countries in Africa, Asia, and the Americas (particularly with Yugoslavia and Romania).

In 1979, Pakistan joined the NAM as a member country. During this time, relations between India and Pakistan improved, as did ties with other major powers.

Fight against the Soviet Union in Afghanistan

Pakistan fought alongside the United States in Afghanistan from 1980 to 1990. The USSR’s intervention in Afghanistan was seen as an act of aggression against a neighboring Muslim state.

As many as 3 million refugees were allowed to cross the Pakistani-Afghan border in a single year. Two aid packages were made available during this time period, marking a watershed moment in Pakistan-US relations (economic and military).

During this time, relations with the United States became closer, the ISI and the CIA collaborated, and Arab states were encouraged to send soldiers to fight in Afghanistan.

Pakistan-US relations deteriorated as a result of the Kashmir insurgency rose, the Afghanistan crisis grew, and the nuclear bomb went off in Pakistan during the 1990s.

A Change in Foreign Policy

As a result of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Pakistan’s foreign policy was fundamentally reshaped. Pakistan turned its back on the Taliban and allowed US planes access to its military airbases.

The United States lifted sanctions against Pakistan and began efforts to mend fences with that country. The United States provided assistance in the form of a $3 billion assistance package, including support from the World Bank, IMF, and ADB.

Since 2005, the United States has urged Pakistan to “ do more ” to combat militant organizations. With regard to Haqqani militants, the United States has been accusing Pakistan of not doing enough.

“We have been clear-eyed in our interaction with Pakistan that we believe that they need to do more to root out terrorists who find safe havens in some of their territory,” State Department spokesperson Mark Toner said in May 2016.

Policy of US ‘Pivot to Asia’

The strategic landscape of the Asia-Pacific region has undergone a dramatic shift since the announcement of the US “ Pivot to Asia ” policy. The US-China competition has taken center stage.

It is clear from the QUAD summit held in Tokyo, Japan, where the member states set new strategies, including the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, that Pakistan will adapt to these trends in the region.

PM Kishida: I invited President Biden of the United States, Prime Minister Modi of India, and Prime Minister Albanese of Australia to Tokyo, where we held the #Quad Leaders’ Meeting, with myself as Chair. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/X2Bs4qIfSi — PM’s Office of Japan (@JPN_PMO) May 25, 2022

Developments in the region directly impact Pakistan; a key regional player. Relatively speaking, relations between the United States and Pakistan are at an all-time low following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan.

India- United States Strategic Alliance

Washington and New Delhi have dramatically altered their approach to strategic cooperation. Both India and the United States are becoming warier of China’s growing assertiveness, which is bringing them closer together.

Save the Date for our 5th Annual Leadership Summit: Celebrating 75 Years of Partnership! We hope to see you there. 🇺🇸🇮🇳 pic.twitter.com/nu2ZSVLvFu — USISPF (@USISPForum) June 10, 2022

Things that happened between the US and India at the beginning of the 2000s, such as the civil nuclear agreement, the Next Steps in Strategic Partnership ( NSSP ), and the 2005 Defense Cooperation Framework Agreement, showed that the US and India could work together more.

A Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement ( BECA ) signed by both countries is a key step toward completing “the triangular foundational pact” for military cooperation between India and the United States.

Pakistan’s place in the rivalry between the United States and China

The US government says that in the future, relations with China, which is a revisionist state, will be “competitive, adversarial, and cooperative.”

The launch of the Quad, Build Back a Better World, AUKUS , the Coalition of Democracies, and foundational agreements with India are all parts of the United States’ global strategy to fight China in the economic and security sectors.

Pakistan doesn’t want to be in the middle of this conflict, and it wants to keep good relations with both of the world’s major powers.

Strained relationship with India

For decades, relations between India and Pakistan have been at a stalemate. There has been no discussion regarding the critical issues that both nations are facing.

Two of the three major wars between India and Pakistan, in 1947 and 1965, as well as a short war in 1999, were caused by disagreements over territory in Kashmir.

Even though there has been a fragile cease-fire between the two countries since 2003, they still shoot at each other across the disputed Line of Control.

Due to the ongoing violence in Kashmir and the growing threat of terrorist attacks by militant groups based in Pakistan, tensions between nuclear-armed neighbors India and Pakistan remain high, as do fears of a serious military conflict.

Under Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindutva doctrine, all of India’s religious minorities are persecuted and their religious rights are violated. Recent blasphemous statements made by two BJP officials demonstrate this.

Pakistan is extremely concerned about the alarming increase in sectarian violence and anti-Muslim sentiment in India.

In a number of Indian states, extremist Hindu mobs attack Muslims in a well-coordinated way, making them feel bad about themselves and making them feel like they don’t belong, with the full knowledge and support of the security system.

Pakistan must reconsider its Strategy

Due to recent events in the region, Pakistan must reconsider its international relations strategy. However, Pakistan should prepare for the possibility that it will be required to take a clear stance in a future conflict between the United States and China.

In the midst of South Asia’s geostrategic fulcrum, Russia and China are providing Pakistan with opportunities to become a more powerful nation.

China hopes that Russia will join the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which has recently made considerable progress. Since then, Pakistan has authorized Russian use of the Gwadar Port for exports from that nation.

Pakistan will only benefit from a multi-polar new world order in South Asia if it knows its economic, military, and fiscal policies so it doesn’t get involved in the power politics of the major powers, which would be bad for Pakistan.

In international relations, there is no such thing as a permanent enemy or ally for Pakistan’s foreign policy.

Pakistan’s Efforts at Reconciliation with Iran and Saudi Arabia

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran are one of the most significant conflicts defining the Middle East’s central stage.

Saudi Arabia and Iran have frequently acted as rivals for influence in the Middle East. Pakistan works with both of these countries and tries to keep the peace and stability in the area.

For the sake of regional peace and stability, Pakistan volunteered to bridge the chasm between Iran and Saudi Arabia for the sake of cooperation because, in today’s world, only cooperation is rewarded and defection is not.

Whenever Saudi Arabia has required Pakistan’s assistance in a time of crisis, Pakistan has been at the forefront. Pakistan has been a key part of Saudi Arabia’s “Looking East” policy because it has been a place to start.

Likewise, as a close neighbor, Pakistan places a high value on its relations with Iran and seeks to preserve them.

Pakistan is also opposed to a schism between the country’s two largest religious groups, Sunni and Shia. Pakistan has taken steps to defuse the escalating tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Pakistan-China ‘Iron brothers’

In contrast to the animosity and mistrust that characterize Sino-Indian and Pakistan-Indian relations, Pakistan’s relationship with China represents a bright spot in its foreign policy.

This cooperation, which is often used as a model for how states should work with each other, has grown over the last seventy years, even though there have been some problems.

Both nations view their friendship as a contributor to regional peace and stability rather than a weapon in power struggles.

Ties with 🇨🇳 ‘cornerstone’ of 🇵🇰’s foreign policy and this relationship will further deepen into new heights of development in the PM Shehbaz Sharif’s new government:Senator @Mushahid Hussain Sayed, Chairman Pakistan Senate Defense Committee & @pcipakchina @CathayPak @CMShehbaz pic.twitter.com/CfZUPZoyS5 — CPEC Official (@CPEC_Official) April 17, 2022

In addition, the CPEC is a partnership initiative with no ulterior motive. Its objective is to assist Pakistan in overcoming its severe development deficit and facilitate the nation’s emergence as a regional commercial and energy powerhouse.

Adapting to Russia

Improving relations with Russia has been a foreign policy objective of Pakistan. The relationship between Pakistan and the US has gotten worse because Pakistan hasn’t done enough to stop terrorists from using Pakistan as a base to operate in Afghanistan.

In the meantime, a resurgent Russia is attempting to reassert itself as a major player on the international stage and is actively attempting to expand its sphere of influence in South Asia.

🇷🇺🇵🇰 On May 1, 1948, diplomatic relations between our country and Pakistan were established. 🤝 Today, Russia & Pakistan are major foreign policy partners. 💬 Sergey #Lavrov : Russian-Pakistani relations are constructive and mutually beneficial. 🔗 https://t.co/OPUpnkqlAA pic.twitter.com/E0h7kVZLle — MFA Russia 🇷🇺 (@mfa_russia) May 1, 2022

Pakistan and Russia signed an agreement to work together on defense in November 2014. This was the first big sign that things were changing between the two countries.

In addition to bilateral activities, Russia supported Pakistan’s full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

Pakistan also benefited from the fact that Russia thought India was trying to get weapons from different places and was slowly getting closer to the US.

In August 2017, the Pakistan Army Aviation Corps bought four Mi-35M “Hind E” attack helicopters from Russia for $153 million. This was part of a deal that was made in August 2015.

In addition to the shipment of arms, both nations have conducted military exercises together. Support for the Afghan Taliban appears to be an area in which Pakistan and Russia have found a common interest.

Russia also acknowledges Pakistan’s assistance in the fight against terrorism, albeit to a lesser extent.

Pakistan and Russia are getting along better, and their relationship has many different sides. These are important steps in Pakistan’s foreign policy as a whole.

Pakistan remains neutral in Russia-Ukraine War

The ongoing war, which started when Russia invaded Ukraine, has made the world split into east and west.

Pakistan hasn’t taken a side on the issue, so it didn’t vote for a US-backed resolution that asked other countries to condemn Russia for going to war in Ukraine.

  Major Obstacles

Primarily, Pakistan is attempting to strike a balance between its relations with the Afghan Taliban and the United States (US). Both parties assert that Pakistan supports the opposing side.

In the same way,  both parties believe they have been duped by Pakistan. The United States believes that Pakistan has misplaced the key to peace in Afghanistan.

In the second place, Pakistan has difficulty striking a balance between its political and economic relations with China and the United States.

Pakistan has been a longtime ally of the United States, but it is also a longtime ally of China, which has supported Pakistan in the United Nations Security Council and helped Pakistan develop nuclear energy. Both nations anticipate Pakistan to remain on course with them.

The third issue is that Pakistan struggles to strike a balance between its geo-economic policies and its rapidly improving relations with India.

Prior to 2018, geo-economics required Pakistan to strengthen its risky trade ties with India. Pakistan is limited because it can’t trade with India normally until the Kashmir dispute is settled.

Similarly, economic ties with the United States and the European Union are more crucial. In June 2022, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) will review Pakistan’s status, and both the United States and the European Union will play a crucial role.

Specifically, garments and textiles, Pakistan’s exports are destined for the European Union. The exports of Pakistan to the United States are also significant. Pakistan cannot afford to disregard US and EU policies at the same time.

Suggestions

Today, Pakistan’s foreign policy needs to be looked at again and rethought in a way that improves the country’s image abroad and works for the public good.

The policy must be brought to a parliamentary forum so that a transparent, free, and fair foreign policy can be formulated for the greater good of the nation’s citizens rather than at the behest of external powers, especially the United States.

Pakistan can only have the best foreign policy if it has a strong political will and acts in a practical way.

As a nation, Pakistan must be viewed as dynamic and forward-thinking while maintaining cordial relations with the world’s major powers and our neighbors.

Pakistan must also safeguard its geostrategic and national security interests, which include Kashmir. At the same time, Pakistan must also strengthen its economic and commercial ties with foreign nations.

*The writer is a Research Fellow at The Diplomatic Insight and Institute of Peace and Diplomatic Studies

** The Diplomatic Insight does not take any position on issues and the views represented herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of The Diplomatic Insight and its staff.

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Foreign Policy of Pakistan: a Critical Approach

Bastos, M. 2021. Foreign Policy of Pakistan: a Critical Approach. PhD thesis University of Westminster Social Sciences https://doi.org/10.34737/v529x

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Pakistan's Foreign Policy: An Overview (1947-1977

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Pakistan: Five major issues to watch in 2023

Subscribe to the center for middle east policy newsletter, madiha afzal madiha afzal fellow - foreign policy , center for middle east policy , strobe talbott center for security, strategy, and technology @madihaafzal.

January 13, 2023

1. Political instability, polarization, and an election year

Politics will likely consume much of Pakistan’s time and attention in 2023, as it did in 2022. The country’s turn to political instability last spring did not end with a dramatic no-confidence vote in parliament last April that ousted then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan from office. Instability and polarization have only heightened since then: Khan has led a popular opposition movement against the incumbent coalition government and the military, staging a series of large rallies across the country through the year.

The struggle for power in Pakistan continues into 2023. While the incumbent government has not ceded to Khan’s demand for early elections, country-wide elections are constitutionally mandated to be held by October this year. It benefits the government politically to hold them off as long as it possibly can as it tries to dig itself out of Pakistan’s urgent economic crisis and its lackluster domestic performance (its diplomatic foreign policy approach has fared better, but that may not matter for elections). The last year has cost it precious political capital, and Khan’s party did very well in a set of by-elections held in July and October. The state has tried to mire Khan and his party in legal cases, relying on a familiar playbook used against opposition politicians in Pakistan, albeit to limited effect, with the courts’ involvement.

Khan’s party still controls two of Pakistan’s four provinces, Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), and the incumbent federal government’s (extra-legal) efforts to try to wrest power from it in Punjab, the largest province, have been unsuccessful (thanks to the courts). The year is off to a dramatic start, with Khan’s party initiating the process to dissolve the Punjab and KP assemblies this month to pressure the federal government into early elections.

For politics-obsessed Pakistan, the biggest question remains who will win the next general election. Will former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif (brother of current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif) return to Pakistan to run as the head of his party, the PML-N? Can Imran Khan win on the strength of his popular support, despite his confrontation with the military? Regardless of the outcome, we can say this much given the histories of the main contenders: The direction of the country is unlikely to change.

2. A precarious economic situation

Pakistan’s economy has been in crisis for months, predating the summer’s catastrophic floods. Inflation is backbreaking, the rupee’s value has fallen sharply, and its foreign reserves have now dropped to the precariously low level of $4.3 billion, enough to cover only one month’s worth of imports, raising the possibility of default.

An economic crisis comes around every few years in Pakistan, borne out of an economy that doesn’t produce enough and spends too much, and is thus reliant on external debt. Every successive crisis is worse as the debt bill gets larger and payments become due. This year, internal political instability and the flooding catastrophe have worsened it. There is a significant external element to the crisis as well, with rising global food and fuel prices in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The combination of all these factors has spelled perhaps the greatest economic challenge Pakistan has ever seen. Yet the government has been mired in politicking, and the release of a $1.1 billion loan tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) remains stalled as Islamabad has pushed back on the IMF’s conditions. The government has now resorted to limiting imports and shutting down malls and wedding halls early, small measures that fail to adequately address the problem.

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Pakistan may end up avoiding default for the time being with IMF help and loans from friendly countries, especially Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations. But those won’t address the clear underlying malaise of the economy – and the fact that something fundamentally will need to change, in terms of how much the economy produces versus how much it spends, to avoid default down the road. But none of Pakistan’s political parties seem to have the political will or ability to bring about such change.

Pakistan must reportedly pay back $73 billion by 2025; it won’t be able to do so without debt restructuring.

3. Flood recovery

A “ monsoon on steroids ” – directly linked to climate change – caused a summer of flooding in Pakistan so catastrophic that it has repeatedly been described as biblical. It left a third of the country under water – submerging entire villages – killed more than 1,700, destroyed homes, infrastructure, and vast cropland, and left millions displaced.

More than four months after the worst of the flooding, nearly 90,000 people are still displaced from their homes, and the floodwater is still standing in some areas. It would be enormously difficult for any country to recover from such a disaster and rebuild lost infrastructure, including roads and schools, let alone a government dealing with a cash crunch like Pakistan’s.

But the Pakistani government – in particular the foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, who has visited the United States twice since the summer, and the minister for climate change, Sherry Rehman – has done an admirable job bringing awareness of the flooding catastrophe to the world stage. A donors’ conference Sharif co-hosted with the United Nations Secretary General Antonio Guterres in Geneva this month raised pledges for more than $9 billion for flood recovery over the next three years (the money is mostly in the form of project loans). Pakistan has also played an important role in discussions about the devastating effects of climate change on developing nations, spearheading the effort to place loss and damage on the agenda at COP27 for the first time, and pushing for COP delegates in Egypt to agree to a loss and damage fund.

With billions of dollars in help promised, the government has passed one hurdle. But the road for recovery ahead will be tough: Displaced people are still sleeping under open skies in Sindh province. Implementing a sustainable recovery will require enormous capacity, resources, and transparency in a country already mired in other troubles.

4. Mounting insecurity

The Pakistani Taliban (or TTP), the terrorist group responsible for killing tens of thousands of Pakistanis from 2007 to 2014, have been emboldened – predictably so – by a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, and once again pose a threat to Pakistan, albeit in a geographically limited region (for now). The group engaged in at least 150 attacks in Pakistan last year, mostly in the northwest. Because the TTP have sanctuary in Afghanistan, the Pakistani state increasingly finds itself out of options when it comes to dealing effectively with the group. The state’s negotiations with the TTP have failed repeatedly, as they are bound to, because the group is fundamentally opposed to the notion of the Pakistani state and constitution as it exists today. The Afghan Taliban have, unsurprisingly, also not proved to be of help in dealing with the TTP – and Pakistan’s relations with the Afghan Taliban have deteriorated significantly at the same time over other issues, including the border dividing the two countries.

At this point, Pakistan’s first preference will be to strike kinetically at TTP targets within its borders, but that will be limited by TTP movement across the border into Afghanistan. That movement is what leaves Pakistan with the difficult-to-resolve TTP issue and complicates things beyond the military operation it launched against the group in 2014. Still, the Pakistani Taliban at this point is not the biggest threat Pakistan faces, given the country’s major political and economic challenges – but left unchecked, it could morph into a significant crisis.

5. Civil-military relations

Pakistan has a new chief of army staff as of November 29 last year. General Asim Munir replaced General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had held the all-powerful post for six years (due to a three-year extension). The appointment of the army chief was a subject of considerable political contention last year; a major part of the reason Khan was ousted from power was his falling out with the military on questions over the appointments of top army officials.

All eyes are now on how civil-military relations shape up under Munir. Under Bajwa, the military solidified its control over all manner of policy behind the scenes. Bajwa presided over a close “same-page” relationship with Khan; when that frayed, the PML-N was eager to take Khan’s place as the military’s ally and head of the civilian government. Bajwa left office saying the army would no longer be involved in political matters; few in Pakistan believe him. With politics set to dominate the agenda this year and an election imminent, Munir has a chance to show the country whether he will follow in his predecessor’s footsteps, or chart a new course for civil-military relations in Pakistan. Pakistan’s history indicates the former.

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